Should we blame the Dodgers? Or give the Red Sox credit?
Like any team that loses in the Championship round of any sport, critics and fans come out of the woodwork attacking coaches, management, and players about what could have or should have gone differently. This most recent World Series loss by the Dodgers to the Red Sox is no different. For the most part, the Red Sox were the better team during the series which is why they were able to win in 5 games with the Dodgers' only win coming in 18 innings Friday night. Armed with multiple MVP candidates, the highest payroll in baseball, and the best first year manager the game of baseball has ever seen, the Red Sox were the clear favorites to win the World Series since day one of the regular season.
However, despite the fact that the Red Sox had a +12 run differential in the series, the games were all close until after the 5th inning in every game. In Game 1, the Red Sox had only a 5-4 lead going into the bottom of the 7th inning before Alex Wood gave up a 3 run homer which allowed the Red Sox to blow the game wide open. In Game 2, the Dodgers were winning 2-1 in the bottom of the 5th inning when Scott Alexander came in for Hyun-Jin Ryu and immediately gave up 3 runs and allowed the Sox to go up 2-0 in the Series. In Game 4 Saturday night, the Dodgers had a 4-0 lead going into the 8th inning only to have the Dodgers' relief give up 9 runs in 2 innings basically destroying any chance the Dodgers had of swinging momentum in the series. Finally, in Game 5, the Red Sox beat down on a clearly defeated Dodgers team who, despite their best efforts, couldn’t muster together one last game to send the series back to Boston. So why recap the series like this? Because I want to show that, despite the scores not looking close, every one of these games were in doubt until mid-way through the game when the Dodgers' relief threw the wrong pitches at the wrong time. Overall, what the series came down to (as most do) was failure to execute by the Dodgers in hand with the Red Sox ability to capitalize on ever mistake the Dodgers made. That is heartbreaking for a Dodgers fan to hear I am sure, but frankly 2 to 3 plays in a series can change everything.
All of these mistakes the Dodgers committed (to get back to my earlier point) have caused Dodgers fans, nearly unanimously, to call for the firing of Dave Roberts and the Dodgers' analytically based front office (some are also calling for the heads of the relievers). There are merits to these claims made by angry Dodgers' fans. I am not going to defend Dave Roberts and pretend that he managed the Series as effectively as he could have, because frankly he did not. But the bigger picture that I feel like many fans are missing is that this outcome is equally attributable to the Dodgers' flaws as it is to the Red Sox greatness. It is one thing to make mistakes, it is another thing to exploit them and make teams pay for that. The Red Sox have been the best team at that all season long and this World Series simply reminded us that is why they are so great.
With all of this table setting out of the way, I am hoping to get down to the bottom of this and figure out wo to blame for the Dodgers' loss: Their pitching? Management? Coaching? Hitting? Or was it simply the fact that the Red Sox were a better team? Spoilers: the answer will include the fact that the Red Sox were a better team.
The major overarching struggles that highlighted the Dodgers' series were two things: relief and hitting. Like I said before, each game of the series was blown open once the Dodgers' relief came into the game for their starters. In Game 1 the controversy surrounding whether to keep Urias or Baez in the game against Nunez in the bottom of the 7th or bring in Alex Wood who gave up a 3 run home run one pitch into his time on the mound. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 on this play and it seems like not bringing Wood in was the right decision given the outcome, but in this case, I believe that this was the wrong decision either way. During the regular season Nunez was hitting .266 against right handed pitchers and .260 against left handed pitches. Not really a noticeable difference and not enough of a glaring differential to pull on other better relievers out. So this bad decision falls on Dave Roberts.
The next controversial decision by Roberts was in Game 2. As I mentioned above, this time the Dodgers had the lead and Ryu was pitching a gem of a game. He was at 69 pitches with 3 runners on base for the Red Sox. Instead of letting Ryu fight his way out of the inning, Roberts opted to bring in Ryan Madson for relief. Madson immediately walked in a run and then gave up a 2 run single which totaled for 3 runs, a 4-2 lead which proved to be all the Red Sox needed to win the game. In this case, I once again believe that Dave Roberts was in the wrong. I think he should have had Ryu figure his way out of the inning. The Dodgers had a force out at any base and 2 outs. Ryu had lost a little bit of control, but taking him out and then giving up 3 runs anyway was way more heartbreaking for Dodgers fans than just having Ryu give up a run or two and then end the inning. In situations like this you have to trust your starters to carry you. I think this is the second major mistake made by Roberts this series and thus this game can be blamed on him and the bullpen.
Game 3 was chaotic and I do not think you can blame anyone for anything that happened that game. Alex Cora actually did a poor job of managing his bullpen this game (using too many pitchers in the first couple extra innings) and everyone assumed the Red Sox would be compromised the next night as a result. This managing mistake by Cora is one the Dodgers should have taken advantage of and capitalized on in Game 4. The Dodgers sort of did until they didn’t…
This game was the back breaker for the series. Up 4-0 going into the 7th inning with Rich Hill pitching beautifully, the Dodgers' relief found a way to give up the lead for them. This loss falls squarely on the Dodgers' relief pitching, but not on Dave Roberts. Taking Hill out in the 7th was the right decision in my mind. He had thrown 91 pitches and had given basically all he could up until that point. He was facing the heart of the Red Sox order for the 3rd time around and running on fumes. He had given all he could so it was the bullpens job to carry his lead to the end. The failed to do that in the most horrific fashion. As soon as Alexander came in for Hill he walked Holt. Then Madson came in for Alexander. He proceeded to give up a three run home run to Moreland and the Red Sox were right back in it. Jansen came into the game in the 8th and Pearce homered off of him. These runs were not the fault of Dave Roberts. You need to be able to trust your bullpen and they failed him. Finally in the 9th, Floro and Wood gave up 5 runs basically ending any chance the Dodgers had to come back and win.
You may also be wondering at this point, shouldn’t some of the blame fall on the Dodgers hitting? Well yes and no. In game 1 and game 4 their offense both scored 5 runs and 6 runs respectively which should be more than enough to win games in the World Series. In games 2, 3, and 5, their bats went cold, in part because of Boston's superb pitching, but also because the Dodgers insisted on swinging for the fences every time they came up to bat. These hard swings led to dozens of strike outs and embarrassingly low batting averages highlighted by: Bellinger at .167, Joc Pederson at .185, Austin Barnes at .143, Matt Kemp at .042, and Max Muncy at .125. On top of that their catchers were their worst hitters which is crippling when you look at how well the Red Sox' catchers hit. Blake Swihart for the Sox hit .294 with 5 hits and 2 runs in comparison to Austin Barnes who hit .143 with 1 run and 1 hit, making him nearly unplayable in the series on offense. The Dodgers offense is built around the home run ball which leads to feast or famine. For example, in the regular season, the Dodgers' strategy was to make pitchers work by making them throw as many pitches as possible per at bat. The Dodgers averaged 4.05 pitches/at bat during the regular season and 4.50 during the World Series! A massive improvement. However, they had nothing to show for it because they swung for the fences rather than try to put the ball in play which made them easy outs despite their ability to work the count.
So ultimately what this comes down to is a couple things. First, it is very easy to blame the pitching and Dave Roberts for the loss of this World Series. Anger towards him and his decision are perfectly rational, but the loss cannot fall squarely on his shoulders. Ultimately, the players play the game. Even if the outcome wasn’t what you wanted as a fan, I think it is important to not shoulder the blame on one person or unit. Each player is put in a position to give their chance the best opportunity to win games. Sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn’t. That is the beauty of baseball. It can be both frustrating and heartbreaking one pitch, then joyous and celebratory the next.
The Dodgers ultimately lost to a better team this series. Whether the Dodgers made different pitching changes or not, the Red Sox still had the talent to win this series, even if it was not in five games. In cases like these, the fallibilities come to light more than the infallibilities do. Give the Red Sox credit for playing the best game they could have each night and for making the Dodgers pay for their mistakes when they did make them. It is easy to blame analytics for the frustrating outcome of this series, but you have to remember that this front office and this analytical strategy is what got you to back to back World Series. Even though you didn’t win either year, just getting there and having a chance is more than some ball clubs can even hope for. So it's okay to be mad, but if you are a Dodgers fan you should also appreciate the journey you have been on for two years now. I hadn't seen the Dodgers in the World Series in my lifetime until a year ago so I understand that I am witnessing history. This is all about perspective and understanding that even if you don’t win (which is upsetting) there can still be positives to take away from this season despite the team's flaws.
Stats and information retrieved from Fox Sports and MLB Reference.