News just broke this morning. The first big free agent to sign is Manny Machado and he's going to one of the most beautiful cities in the world for the next ten years, San Diego! The deal has been agreed to financially and now both sides just need to figure out other semantics like bonuses and such, but the deal has effectively been completed.
Instantly, I have four reactions to this news. One, this is a lot of money to play for a team that has not made the playoffs since 2006 and has never made the playoffs under their new ownership. So clearly the desire to make the playoffs and be relevant again played a role in this. Secondly, I do not think this trade will be all that bad for the Padres despite the years and salary. Yes historically 10 year contracts have been a disaster. Machado is only 26 though which means that you will be getting ideally 7 good years out of him before he becomes washed up and mails it in for the rest of the contract. When Pujols signed his 10 year deal with the Angels he was 32 years old so Machado being significantly younger is an advantage for the Padres. Also there is no salary cap in baseball so if the Padres are willing to pay in order to compete then why not? Owners are often just fans who happen to own teams. They read all the same things we do and watch all the same highlights we watch. It is enticing to have a player of Machado's caliber on your team even if you have to overpay for him. This leads me to my next point.
The Padres definitely overpaid for Machado. This is because the Padres will almost never land a high end Free Agent without overpaying for them. The Padres have a nice ballpark and great location but because of their reputation for having lackluster fans and never being competitive they have struggled to sign top 20 MLB players. In terms of statistics,
before being traded last year Machado was having a career high in batting with a .315 batting average and a .575 slugging percentage. His numbers are not worth every penny of the his deal, but swing is one of the best ones in baseball and there is no denying that Manny will resonate with the community of San Diego. I believe that his ability to become popular in the community is the most important asset for the Padres. He has a cool, calm demeanor which, while it did not translate well to LA but will resonate in San Diego. San Diego is just desperate to root for a good, fun team that will make the team respectable again. In addition there is not denying that his Latino origins will make him the most popular player in San Diego since Adrian Gonzalez. He is not from San Diego like Gonzalez was, but with San Diego being a border town with Mexico it is important that so many citizens who live there have a player they can root for because of their heritage or language.
Finally, the Padres have one of the best farm systems in baseball so Machado does not need to be that good for that long. The Padres have the best ranked farm system with 7 of the top 100 prospects. If even have of those pan out and become great players then the Padres could suddenly field a really good, competitive roster over the next 5-10 years before Machado is past his prime. He may end up being the catalyst that will push them into the playoffs because of their great young core, not the sole reason they get there. We have seen this with the last three World Series competitors. The Dodgers paid a ton of money for Adrian Gonzalez, Manny Machado, and Brian Dozier (with others) over the past five years, but when they needed big hits the most the hits came from Joc Peterson, Cody Bellinger, and Yasiel Puig (all farm system players). The Astros and Red Sox are in the same boat. The Sox paid David Price a ton and Chris Sale. However, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogearts were considered their MVPs throughout the postseason. The Astros won the World Series on the back of their farm system with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and others.
So I think for almost any team that is seeking to be a competitor, this would be a bad signing. For a team just trying to be relevant and fun again then I think this about the price you need to pay for a big time player like Machado. Yes he will have some hustling issues and yes he may pout every now and then, but he is going to hit lots of home runs and make a lot of Padres fans very excited.
Ultimately this signing also affects the other big FA on the market as well. With Machado going to San Diego, this eliminates one of the big suitors for Bryce Harper. This may ultimately guarantee that he is going to the Phillies like he's been rumored to for months now. Spring training begins in a few days now and we need him to end up somewhere soon.