We are now a full month into the NBA Season and while there is still a lot of time left, I think it is important that we begin to assess who is legit and who is just having a hot start. The first team I want to assess is the Sacramento Kings, who have started out 8-6 (currently the 8th seed) to begin the season and, so far, have exceeded most expectations set for them to start the season. There are a couple of reasons why I believe the Kings have done well to start this season, some of which I believe are sustainable, and others I believe are flukes that will eventually catch up with them. I am going to start with the main reason they are winning games, and that reason is because of a man named De'Aaron Fox.
Fox has made a jump this season that has, like the Kings overall, exceeded even the most optimistic of standards set for them. His scoring is up from 11.6 points a game to 18.7 this year on only 2.7 more field goal attempts this year. That is an impressive jump with that few of a field goal attempt increase. On top of that, his 3-point shooting has improved from 30% to 42% on one more attempt per game than last year (2.1 to 3.1) and his overall field goal attempts have gone from 10.9 to 12.9 (net 2 increase). To put these numbers in context, Russell Westbrook in his first to second year jumped from 15 to 16 points a game on one more shot attempt per game while only shooting 42% from the field. Jimmy Butler, when he made his jump from 13 to 20 points in 2015, his field goal attempts went up by 8 on 46% shooting. So while Fox's points per game are on par with past All-Star jumps (which is a significant feat in itself), his shooting percentage is what has separated him from the others. He is shooting 50% from the field which indicates that he is efficiently picking his shots and controlling the offense really well. The only decrease in his shooting this year is in his free throw percentage which is down to 67.8% from 72.3% last year. However, the counter to that is that he is now averaging 6.2 attempts per game, up from 2.7. So that decrease can be expected. Fox's improvement and massive jump from last year is a primary reason as to why the Kings have started out the season winning games.
:20 is a good example of the King's defense and quick pace leading to good shots
:33 watch how quickly they inbound the ball and then watch Fox's body control as he flies down the court. His body control has remarkably improved from last year.
1:00 is another example of that.
Throughout the video, you will also notice how Fox's shot is quicker, more deliberate, and one fluid motion. His mechanics look much better than last year.
However, all of De'Aaron Fox's numbers being up are not just because of his improvements. It is also due to the team's overall increased pace of play. Currently, the Kings are Number 2 in the league in PACE (106.75) which is a reflection of how quickly they play. PACE also often is an indicator of how good a team's defense is because when a team plays quickly it means that they are getting out in transition as a result of forcing turnovers and grabbing defensive rebounds. According to NBA.com, they are Top 10 in both steals (8th) and in defensive rebounding (10th). In addition, their PACE also means they are getting more shot attempts which leads to increased in scoring and puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses. This PACE explains the increase in Sacramento's players across the board, and this speed of play all starts with De'Aaron Fox. He is one of the fastest players I have ever seen with the ball in his hand (I would say my order is Fox, Russell Westbrook, and John Wall) and the fact that he is still playing so efficiently is an incredible feat for a player so young. The only detriment to their PACE is that they are averaging 15.1 turnovers a game which I believe will cost them some games this season against even some bad teams. However, there is another set of statistics that I believe is helping them get off to this great start: each individual player's efficiency.
Overall, the team is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 53.9% which is Top 5 in the NBA (behind Golden State, Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, and Los Angeles Lakers). Every team in this ranking is a good team (maybe the jury is still out on the Lakers, but I believe they are good) and all of their eFG%s are sustainable as history would indicate. Typically the leaders in this category for the NBA are between 56%-58% so it is not like these 5 teams are playing way above their heads. Obviously, the major outlier in this statistic is that the Kings and Lakers are not playoff teams, yet are in the Top 5. I expect that once the Rockets and Thunder both find their footing then they will make their way in to the Top 5 and the non-playoff teams there will drop off a little bit. I do not think that it is unrealistic for the King's to keep playing this well on the offensive end though.
These highlights versus the Hawks are a good reflection of their efficiency and pace as a team. They take good shots and get good shots in transition. In addition to this, Marvin Bagley has come on as their primary forward off the bench, basically taking away all minutes from Skal Labissiere and Harry Giles.
:06 Kings steal to fastbreak and Giles Eurostep layup.
:14 another steal and another transition bucket
rest of the video, Fox makes it rain.
The King's effective field goal percentage is not the only measure of their efficiency though. The team has 7 players with a PER above the league average (15) and at the top of the list is Willie Cauley-Stein (19.9), De'Aaron Fox (19.4), and Nemanja Bjelica (17.8). Cauley-Stein has improved his game this year because the King's (give all credit to coach Dave Joerger) clever ways of using him on offense. They have put him in more alley-oop situations and used him like The Rockets use Clint Capela and how various teams have used Tyson Chandler on the offensive end. He has also attempted to stretch his game by taking more mid-range jumpers, although those have not looked pretty. Either way he has improved as well. On top of that, Bjelica has been a sneaky pick up for the Kings this season and, although I believe he is overpaid a little bit, he clearly has added a dimension to this team on both sides of the ball that have contributed to winning.
So far in this post, I have sung the praises of the Kings and given them credit for their early season success. However, now he is a reason why I think that this early season start is not an indication of how the rest of the season will go for them (although I would embrace that pleasant surprise). Their schedule so far this season has been one of the easier in the NBA and their record reflects that. They have played against 6 Eastern Conference teams and have gone 4-2 against them (losses to both Milwaukee and Toronto). Their wins against the east have come against Hawks, Magic, Heat, and Wizards. With the exception of the Heat, none of these teams are better than any other team in the West. So the Kings have beaten who they need to beat when they play bad Eastern Conference teams. When they play the West it is a different story though. They are 4-4 against the West with losses to: the Jazz, Pelicans, Nuggets, and Lakers. These are all playoff teams and they need to beat these teams if they want to have any chance at finishing above .500 this season. The only playoff team the Kings have beaten are the Spurs. This is a good win, but I think it is important to remember that they only have one win against one playoff team as of today so I want to see them play some better teams (and win) before I really think they have a chance to make the playoffs or even compete for one.
So the big question is: can the Kings sustain this success? The short answer is: sort of. Some parts are permanent and can be carried through the season. De'Aaron Fox's improvement is permanent. Maybe he will not shoot 40% for the rest of the season from 3, but I believe that he can shoot at least above league average for the rest of the year. I believe they can keep their PACE up, but I do not think they can continue to play top tier defense and will eventually fall back into league average to below league average as they begin to play tougher teams. However, even if they do not continue to win games, the individual improvements of players up and down their roster is a promising measure of success for them that they can build on. If they can somehow improve and keep winning then we will have a whole different discussion about them a few months from now.
*Thanks to Basketball Reference and NBA.com for all of these Statistics
* Cover Image taken from Getty Images
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