For the first time in five years the NBA Finals will not feature the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. For the first time in nine years we will not see LeBron James in the Finals. For the first time we will get ever in NBA history we will get the Golden State Warriors versus the Toronto Raptors. Both teams are making history and going for history when they begin their series on Thursday night. The Raptors are in their first NBA finals ever and the Warriors are going for their 4th title in 5 years (a feat accomplished only by the Boston Celtics in the 60s).
We will also get a matchup between two teams that essentially never played each other in the regular season. The Raptors and the Warriors faced each other twice this year; they played first in Toronto on November 29, 2018 and then again in Oakland on December 12, 2018. However during both of these two matchups, both of the teams’ full roster of stars did not play in either matchup.
Additionally, both matchups took place before the February trade deadline. In November, both Steph Curry and Draymond Green did not play (plus DeMarcus Cousins had not returned from his Achilles injury yet). On top of that, Alfonzo McKinnie had not made it into the Warriors rotation yet. For the Raptors, OG Anunoby and Delon Wright both played major roles for the team. Norman Powell also didn’t play because he was out with a shoulder injury. In December, Kawhi Leonard did not play in Golden State.
Toronto won both matchups, but you couldn’t really take too much away from either victory because Golden State, like usual, mailed in most of the regular season and didn’t put in their best effort. In November, if not for a huge Kevin Durant 51-point game, the Warriors would be been blown out the first time in Toronto. The Raptors killed the Warriors in transition and their half court defense was suffocating – just like it was against the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals.
If you watch the first quarter of their December game in Oakland, you can see that Toronto jumped out to an early double-digit lead and the Warriors never really had the energy or motivation to get back into the game. The Raptors won almost every 50/50 ball in the first quarter, and the Raptors outscored the Warriors in every single quarter except for 3rd (the Warriors won by 1 point). The Raptors defense also forced the Golden State into 19 turnovers. Finally, neither Iguodala nor Livingston played in that game.
Finally, since both games took place before the trade deadline, the Raptors still had Jonas Valančiūnas playing center for them (albeit in limited minutes). Now they have former Defensive Player of the Year and multiple time All-Star Marc Gasol starting at center for them. His play making and defensive prowess completely transforms and improves their team.
So despite not being able to answer many big picture questions from the teams two previous matchups, we can analyze and predict a few factors that could make a difference in this series. I am going to go through each of the points that I think will be most important to watch for in this Finals matchup. I am going to start with general important notes about the series, then explain how new rotation players and trade acquired players impact this series, how each team will go about defending their opposing team’s star players, what each team should try to take away, and finally who I think will win as a result.
General Notes
Both the Raptors and Warriors are facing some major injury problems going into this series. Kevin Durant is set to miss Game 1 with his calf strain and DeMarcus Cousins, who left the first round with a leg injury, is questionable to play in the series at all. Two of the Warriors All-NBA caliber players may be out for most of this series and this could seriously hamper them on offense. Both of these players also provide size up front to guard Toronto’s Centers and wing players on defense as well.
Durant’s health is also a big problem for Golden State because of the pressure he can put on Kawhi Leonard on the offensive end of the floor. Kawhi was tasked with guarding Giannis during games 3 through 6 of the ECF and that was a tall task (literally). Guarding Kevin Durant though is completely different though and way more difficult. His outside and isolation game is among the best of all time and, since Kawhi is the Raptor’s best defender, he will be forced to mark Durant on defense. He won’t be able to maintain the load of guarding Durant for 40 minutes plus running the Raptors offense. It is just too massive of a load for one player who was already showing signs of limping last series.
So while the Warrior’s health is problematic, the Raptors have just as much of a concern regarding their health as well.
If Kevin Durant is unable to play, then that lifts a huge defensive burden off the Raptors as it will allow Kawhi to switch between guarding Curry or Klay for stretches and then have him rest by sagging off of Draymond Green or Iguodala. Despite all that though, the Warriors are still 31-1 in their past 32 games when Steph plays and KD doesn’t. The Rockets and the Trailblazers will both tell you: just because Kevin Durant is out, doesn’t mean the Warriors are any easier to play against. So the Raptors have their work cut out for them defensively. One big advantage they do have over Golden State though is home court.
For the first time in five years, the Warriors will be starting out the NBA finals on the road. The Raptors narrowly had the better regular season record (58 wins to 57 wins) and that was all that was needed to secure homecourt in this series. I expect Toronto to be rocking and loud for the first two games of the series as the Warriors will be playing in an environment they are not used to. If this series goes 7 games, then the Warriors will have to win it on the road. They can do it. They did it last year against Houston, but this Toronto team is better than Houston was last year, and they have way more looks to throw at the Warriors that the Rockets did.
Finally, you have to consider the Drake Factor (not the equation) in this series. The Rapper Drake is going to be courtside at every Raptors’ and he’s going to be really annoying when he cheers. Last time Durant and Drake met on the sidelines; Durant weirdly gave him what looked like a purple nurple?
Maybe Drake is already in his head. I don’t know if that will actually have a major impact in the series, but everyone is saying that we need to remember the Drake Factor, so I figured I’d mention it.
New players in the series
Marc Gasol has been the best trade-deadline acquisition by any team this season. He has completely reshaped the Raptors on offense and defense because of his intelligent playmaking and his remarkably quick feet on defense. His length and size allow him to contest both jump shots and drives to the rim really well, and he did a great job last series helping off of his man to smother the Greek Freak when he had the ball. Gasol though, won’t be as effective in this series as he was last time because Golden State is just a faster and smaller team than Milwaukee. The Warriors’ biggest player on the floor is often Kevin Durant or Kevon Looney who gets most of their minutes at Center. Unless the Warriors start Andrew Bogut as an attempt to matchup with Marc Gasol, I don’t anticipate Gasol will be used as often in this series as he was in the previous three rounds.
However, just because he can’t play very often doesn’t mean he’ll be useless though. He will still be able to create plays for them on offense and he will be able to protect the rim at times when Looney or Bogut are on the floor. He also can set hard screens on Curry every time they run his man around them on offense. Cutting back on his minutes allows him to be more effective in the limited time he does have. Gasol, at age 33, is averaging 33 minutes per game in the playoffs; he played 45 minutes twice in the 76ers series and played a series high 44 minutes in the Raptors 2OT win in game 2 against the Bucks. So simply put, Gasol is getting worn down by playing all these minutes. So him not being able to play too much in this series may be a blessing in disguise for the Raptors’ minutes management. Ibaka and Siakam will end up playing a lot of minutes at Center for Gasol if the Raptors do decide to match the Warriors and play smaller because it won’t be as hard on them defensively.
Another important newcomer to this series for the Raptors is Norman Powell; back from his shoulder injury, he has taken OG Anunoby’s role as the 3 and D player off the bench (Anunoby is injured and questionable to return in this series). He’s shooting 41% from three in the playoffs and he’ll create crucial spacing for Leonard as he goes one on one in the post with his defender. Additionally, Powell is just another body the Raptors can throw at Curry to beat him up and make his life miserable.
For the Warriors, if DeMarcus Cousins is somehow healthy and can play then he is a valuable asset to the team because he allows them to have more versatility on offense and defense. Depending on how good of shape he is in, he can run the floor well and basically cancel out Marc Gasol on offense because of his size. On top of that, Cousins won’t need to worry about getting played off the court because of too many Raptor’s perimeter players being on the floor at the same time as him. Both Siakam and Ibaka (two smaller player Cousins would need to guard) have been shooting 29% and 22% from three respectively which means that (unless they get hot suddenly) they pose little to no threat from the perimeter to the Warriors. They will need to create off the dribble to be effective and Cousins can do that well enough against Ibaka. Siakam poses more of a challenge but his handle still isn’t developed enough to cause too many problems. Siakam hasn’t shown to be a good catch and shoot player in the playoffs so far and the Warriors can take advantage of that by laying off him.
Finally, in both of the two games played by Toronto and Golden State, there wasn’t a single game where Kawhi, Lowry, Siakam, KD, Steph, Draymond, Klay, or Cousins were on the court at the same time. So most of the important impact players in this series never faced off against the other teams’ best players with a full roster by their side. This obviously will completely impact how both teams defend each other going into this series.
Defense
The Warriors defending Kawhi
The big question for the Warriors going into Game 1 is, who will guard Kawhi Leonard. It’s no secret that these have been Kawhi’s playoffs. As soon as KD went down with his injury, the focus and conversation over who the best player in the world is zeroed in on Kawhi. And boy has he answered he call. He’s averaging 31 points per game in the playoffs, he hit an all-time game winning shot, he defended Giannis better than anyone before him, and he grabbed a clutch offensive rebound at the end of Game 6 to send the Raptors to the NBA Finals for the first time ever. He is a hero in Toronto, and he is playing the best basketball of his career. If the Warriors want to win this series, they need to limit Kawhi.
Obviously, something like that is easier said than done. The Warriors switch a lot on defense, so they won’t be having one primary defender on Kawhi the entire series. I expect Draymond Green or Iguodala to pick up the assignment of guarding him to start Game 1 and then have them switch back and forth throughout the game in order to constantly give him different defensive looks. Once Kevin Durant comes back, I expect him to join in on helping them too.
Most times when Kawhi gets the ball, he’s looking to either drive to the paint or get a mid-range jumper on the right side of the court so the Warriors will want to keep him away from his sweet spot.
It's not a coincidence he hit a game winner from this spot, this is a spot he loves to get to on the floor.
He likes to dribble into rhythm and then take the shot he’s accustomed to taking. In fact, in the playoffs, over 60% of Leonard’s shot attempts have come after 3 dribbles.
For reference, only 36% of Kevin Durant’s shots come off of 3 dribbles or more.
The Warriors will do all they can to take away Kawhi’s rhythm shots and force the Raptors’ role players to beat them on the perimeter. As I mentioned above, Siakam and Ibaka have been shooting incredibly poorly from 3-point range in the playoffs. Dany Green, normally the spacer for this team, is only shooting 31% from three in the playoffs. Marc Gasol has been above 40% along with Norman Powell, but neither of these players are taking more than 4 of them per game. You need players who shoot that good of a percentage to shoot a higher volume of threes as well. Contrast these 3-point shooting numbers with the Warriors and you see why the Warriors are so hard to defend:
They shoot almost double the number of threes as the Raptors players with the same (or better) percentages. The math just doesn’t work out in the Raptors favor. The Raptor’s perimeter shooters can get hot once and have an anomaly game, but the Warriors shooting just mathematically puts them at a massive advantage over the Raptors.
Finally, you have to remember that the Warriors only need to really worry about one superstar player beating them. The Raptors have to worry about 3, maybe 4, possible even 5 beating them. Their tasks on defense will be much more difficult ones.
Raptor’s defense on Steph and Klay
So I think you know what the Raptors need to do then if they want to win, right? They need to drive Golden State off the three-point line and force them into taking mid-range jumpers. That sentence though is the epitome of easier said than done. Klay Thompson and Steph Curry are the most elite off-ball players in the NBA. Steph’s ability to locate to the corner and shake off defenders is well known by everyone, and Klay’s persistence to always get open is unmatched. Curry’s natural feel for the game allows him to do this so easily:
Usually when a player gives up the ball, you get a second of rest as the defender. When guarding Steph, you have to pay even more attention once he gives it up.
The Raptors need to do all they can to make Steph’s life as hard as possible on offense. These means grabbing him when he comes through screens and using multiple defenders to guard him so no one player gets worn down. To start Game 1, Toronto will most likely use Lowry to guard him since they will need Green to chase Klay Thompson around. I also fully expect Powell and VanVleet to take turns on curry, but for as little time as possible. VanVleet guarded Curry in the Raptors previous matchup in December and he gave up multiple wide-open looks to Curry in the first quarter:
Overall, I think the best strategy for the Raptors on defense against Curry is to attack him on offense. Both Houston and Cleveland did that a ton every time they played them because they knew that if they could wear down Curry and get him in foul trouble then they could beat the Warriors. So expect a lot of Lowry ball-handling action with Siakam, Gasol, or Ibaka as the screener so that they can bump and hit Curry as much as possible.
Toronto does have one trump card they can play if their guards can’t stop Curry. They always have the option to put Leonard on Curry which could completely shut him down all together since Leonard is so long and quick. I think the Raptors will avoid this if they can, but if there is a time for them to implement it, then it will have to be before Kevin Durant comes back. Because once he’s back, then all of Kawhi’s attention will have to go to stopping him.
For guarding Klay Thompson, a lot of the same principles apply. Switch when he’s coming off screens and do whatever you can to stay with him at all times. He loves coming off dribble hand-offs from big men at the top of the key and then taking the free throw line jumper which is money for him every time. Finally, the Raptors need to watch out for Klay’s fake screen and slip or bounce to the three-point line that Steph/KD run with him. It happens really quickly and although, many teams run that same action now, he is still the best at it.
Guarding Kevin Durant when he returns
If KD returns in this series - which is still no guarantee – the Warriors will be back at basically full strength and the Raptors’ chances of winning will only go down. The Raptor’s chances of defending Durant (which they did in November) successfully looks a lot like this:
That was without Curry on the court as well. With the Warriors at full force, the Raptors will really struggle to beat a team that can space the floor as well as the Warriors can. This isn’t to say that the Raptors don’t have a chance and that they can’t defend them. They just need to not make many mistakes and play the best basketball they have played all year.
As a team, the Raptors need to keep the Warriors out of transition and the Warriors need to do that as well to the Raptors. Both teams are very good rebound teams, but the Raptors, with their size, have the potential to dominate the boards both on offense and defense. The Raptors’ half court defense against the Bucks was smothering and embarrassed the Bucks as they were unable to even muster 3 points over several minutes of basketball.
The Raptors defense can be suffocating as well if they can force the Warriors into slowing down and then taking away their second chance opportunities. The Warriors beat Houston because they killed them on the offensive boards (especially in Game 2 of the series). The reason that happened is because KD, Klay, and Steph don’t miss twice. If you give them a second chance opportunity, they will not waste it.
What I think will happen
The Raptors are good, and they deserved to come out of the East. The Warriors are one of the best teams we have ever seen, and they have been to five straight finals for a reason. Ultimately, I think this series will come down to Kawhi Leonard. If he can maintain the level he has been playing at throughout the playoffs then the Raptors have a chance to beat the Warriors. Kawhi’s play over the past month has been Michael Jordan/LeBron James level greatness and with that kind of greatness, even a dynasty as great as the Warriors can fall. He will need help though. He will need better shooting and he will need Kyle Lowry to play like he did against Milwaukee, not like how he has played in just about every playoff series before that.
The Raptors also need some help. They need Kevin Durant to not be 100% healthy and they need Klay and/or Steph to have a bad game in the Finals. Additionally, they need to defend home court. They don’t need to steal a game because they have Game 7 at home, so all they need to do is win their home games and they win the Finals.
The Finals will not be easy for Toronto. This series will be the toughest series they have played in the playoffs so far. Golden State has been off for over a week now, so they are rested up and healthy. I think the Raptors though can make this a very competitive series. Maybe I am just really high on them after how well they played against the Bucks, but I think they can give Golden State a run for the money.
My final prediction: Warriors 4, Raptors 2.
I would love to have a seven-game series in the Finals, but I just don’t think we can get there. Here’s how I think the Finals can play out.
Game 1: Steph and Klay play out of this world to start and Raptors guards don’t defend them well. Warriors win Game 1.
Game 2: Raptors bounce back, Kawhi and Lowry both have good games and they win.
Game 3: Kevin Durant comes back, the Warriors are a little bit of a funk because of it. The Warriors barely win, but the Raptors get a ton of confidence because they kept it close.
Game 4: Warriors figure out their issues and then clobber the Raptors at home.
Game 5: The Raptors role players come to play with their backs against the wall. They have their best game of the series and the Raptors survive to play one more time in Golden State.
Game 6: The Warriors win at home and close out the series along with their final game at Oracle.
This series will be a lot of fun, it will be close, and it will be the longest series we’ve had in two years now! These Raptors are better than last years Cavs team so they can give the Warriors a better series, I just don't believe they can win the whole thing.
Stats: all stats found at NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com
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