It’s finally happened! After months of rumors and speculation. Anthony Davis has finally been traded…and to the Lakers no less! He got to his desired destination, thanks to Rich Paul and Klutch. Along the way, Paul's agency bullied the Pelicans, ruined a young Lakers core, and derailed a good Pelicans season.
Now it’s all finally said and done…the dust has settled! The Lakers acquired Anthony Davis in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball, and three first-round picks (including this years No. 4 overall pick). A simple trade and a great deal for both teams! The Pelicans get a new young core which will allow them to throw out all of the Anthony Davis drama while still being a team that compete for a playoff spot. The Lakers finally got LeBron James his second superstar (a top 5 NBA player), and now the Lakers (according to certain odds-makers) are the favorites to win the NBA Championship.
So if you look at this trade from a birds-eye view, then the Lakers look like they’re in a great situation! Same with the Pelicans!
The Lakers have LeBron James, Anthony Davis, cap space and a great coach in Frank Vogel - who has a good coaching staff in tow. However, once you take a closer look at the cap ramifications and future draft picks the Lakers gave up, then you can start to see some cracks in the deal and see how this could backfire for the Lakers.
According to Bobby Marks, the Lakers will complete the trade with the Pelicans on July 6th which means that, if Davis waives his $4 million trade bonus, the Lakers will have $27.7 million in cap space. If the Lakers can somehow convince the Pelicans to wait and make the deal on July 30th, then the Lakers will have $32.5 million which now gives them a chance to chase a third super-star in free-agency since they will be able to offer that player the max. However, if Davis doesn’t waive his bonus (which he shouldn’t because it’s a free $4 million) then the Lakers will only have $23.7 million in cap space which severely handicaps them when it comes to pursuing free agents.
Once the draft is over on Thursday, I’ll go into what roster moves they can make and which options I think are the best ones to pursue. However, they do need shooting and a backcourt. They can either pursue multiple mid-level stars or one massive superstar.
Depending on when the deal takes place, that’ll affect their free-agency strategy though. The draft should also give us a clearer picture regarding the free agency market as a whole.
Now on to the draft picks. Because of the Stepien Rule, the Lakers can only trade their first round picks every other year. This rule was basically created to stop teams from destroying their future by trading away every draft pick in their arsenal. This is why the Lakers traded away so many draft picks so far in the future.
The drafts picks they traded away include: the No.4 pick from this year (when the Draft happens on Thursday, the Lakers will pick for the Pelicans), a top-eight protected pick in 2021 (which becomes unprotected in 2022 if it doesn’t convey in 2021), a 2023 pick swap, and an unprotected 2024 first-round pick which New Orleans can choose to defer to 2025 if they don’t like it.
Besides the rules restricting trades of draft picks, the years in which the draft picks are traded could have huge consequences for the Lakers. I can’t a see a scenario where LeBron James is a top 5 player three years from now (if he’s even playing basketball) because we just simply have never seen it before – although counting out Lebron to defy history may be a mistake I’ll come to regret.
Anthony Davis will only be 29 and in this prime, but the Lakers, depending on who else is on their roster, could be an absolute disaster by then which puts New Orleans in a prime position for the 2022-2025 draft. This also means that the Lakers need to nail these next two years of draft picks because the players they pick will be role players that help Los Angeles pursue a title. I personally don't think the Lakers will be bad enough to convey their 2021 pick so it'll defer to 2022.
The Lakers are going absolutely all in on trying to win a title in the next two to three years. They traded away their entire young core (except for Kuzma) for a chance to win a title now. However, with all of the risk involving this move, I don’t think it’s the wrong one – I think it is one worth taking.
Firstly, Anthony Davis is one of the best players in the NBA, perhaps of our generation. No question about it. Last year during the NBA Playoffs, there were legitimate discussions by analysts about whether Anthony Davis was the best player in the league. And during some stretch he was. In 2018 he played 75 games and averaged 28 points, 11 boards, and 2.6 blocks, including 50 double-doubles. He also has the 3rd highest career PER average. Can you guess who number one is? It's LeBron James.
Now the Lakers have paired two of the best players of All-Time (per their PERs) together in a weakened West.
The Warriors are wounded, the Rockets are looking to blow their team up, the Nuggets haven’t proven anything yet, the Trailblazers are beatable, and the Thunder have one of the worst cap situations in the league. The West is very winnable this next year.
The East also has a lot of questions to answer which makes the title as a whole vulnerable. The Celtics may not have an NBA caliber point guard starting for them next year, the Bucks have a ton of players to try to re-sign, Kawhi may not return to Toronto, and the 76ers have two big free agents they have to try to retain.
Free agency this year is going to be chaotic and there will be a ton of player movement. No one is 100% certain what will happen to each star available, but the fact that the Lakers already have two stars on their current roster is a better start than almost every other team who doesn't have one.
That is why the Lakers needed to make this move now, no matter what the cost. They could no longer afford to wait to make this Davis trade and see if their young core could develop into something special. This next year will be the Lakers’ best chance to win a title in this this entire decade. They need to go all in now.
So no matter what the long-term ramifications of this move are, the Lakers made the move they needed to make, and they got the player they wanted.
The Pelicans also needed to make this move because they needed a clean reset going into the 2019-20 season once they knew for sure that Davis had no intentions of staying in New Orleans. Now they have a young, athletic core (presumably with Zion Williamson and the 4th pick if they don’t trade it) who will be a force to be reckoned with on defense. Lonzo Ball and Jrue Holiday together on defense will be one of the best defensive back courts in the league. Couple with Zion, Hart, and Ingram on defense and your talking about an athletically gifted team that will be competing hard on defense every night. They will be a fun League Pass team to watch for sure!
The biggest reservation I have for them is that I am still not sure if Brandon Ingram will ever reach his ceiling and I am also unsure if Lonzo can stay healthy (plus develop a consistent jumper that defenses need to respect). With Julius Randle opting out to become a free-agent, I have absolutely no idea where their scoring will come from on offense. Ingram can create a shot for himself off the dribble, but when he drives into the paint, he’s basically a black-hole on offense and with next to no floor-spacing surrounding him, he can be easily neutralized.
The Pelicans also have the option to flip any of these young players during the Draft and break up this young Lakers core which can then become anything the Pelicans want them to be.
The off-season is already here. We didn’t even get 48 hours between the Raptors winning the title and the Pelicans trading Anthony Davis! The League and I right? This off-season will feature an unparalleled level of player movement and I cannot wait! But first, the NBA Draft on Thursday!
Also here's a reminder of who good Anthony Davis is...in case you forgot.
*AD Cover photo taken from LeBron's Instagram