Just like so many NBA seasons before, this one has seemed to once again fly by. I am both happy and sad about this. I am happy that we are just 25-27 games away from the playoffs, but I am also sad that we will watch many seasons end for so many players. The Hawks are a team that I instantly think of as I type this. Trae Young has really come along and developed into a budding young talent this past month and John Collins is proving to be a reliable small ball 5. Some teams though I a cannot wait to have their season end. The Warriors are an example of this. They are incredibly fun to watch because of their five superstars, but they are all clearly coasting through the regular season and just want the playoffs to start. I am tired of seeing the Warriors lose games that they could win but they just do not because of their lack of effort. The Warriors are probably the team with which it is easiest to spot whether they are trying or not. Just watch their defensive rotations and how they move their feet on defense. If they allow tons of drives to the rim then they are not trying too hard. If they are cutting off dribblers and forcing them to kick the ball out then you know they are trying hard and want to win that game to send a message. That is when we will see their real potential as a team shine. Well with that rambled and extended introduction, I will finally begin to throw out the biggest storylines to watch for as the NBA season reaches the home stretch.
1. The race for the 8th seed in the West (AKA will the Lakers make the playoffs?)
It is no secret that the Lakers are fighting with the Kings in a desperate battle to make the playoffs. Whether that is in the form of the 8th seed or 7th seed I do not think either team cares. They just both want to make it. Obviously the 7th seed is more valuable because the Nuggets are much more beatable than the Warriors are. But both teams can cross that bridge when they come to it. Before that, bot just need to make the playoffs.
Currently, according to Fivethirtyeight, the Lakers have a 26% chance of making the playoffs and the Kings have a 8% chance of making it. Obviously, the two biggest teams in both of these teams ways are the Spurs and Clippers. The Clippers have a 60% chance of making it because of their record, but I think that will tail off very quickly since the Clippers traded away their best player in Tobias Harris. While this Clippers team is still capable of making the playoffs I do not think they want to. They lose their first round pick to the Celtics this year if they make it and they keep it if they do nor. However if the Lakers and Kings both flame out to end the season the Clippers could find themselves in the playoffs anyway.
The second concern both the Kings and Lakers have are that there are a multitude of teams all jumbled together in the Western Conference from seeds 6 to 12. The Mavericks and Timberwolves though are the two biggest threats behind both the Kings and Lakers. Dallas is giving it all they have to make the playoffs as indicated by the trade for Porzingis. If he is able to play this year then that makes them a huge threat to finish with the 8th seed. If he does not return I do not think the Mavs will have enough talent to win enough games. The Timberwolves have all the talent in the world to make the playoffs, I just do not trust them to put it all together since they have not proven to me they can do it all season. However, the last 25 games of the year are the most crucial part of the season for teams like the T-Wolves fighting for a spot. Their talent may win out and propel them to an 8th seed if Wiggins gets hot for a few games and they play well defensively. Finally, every team fighting for a playoff spot needs to watch how the Spurs are doing. They should watch the Jazz too, but the Spurs I think are the team that more realistically can be taken down. December of this season the Spurs were a top 10 defense and had one of the best offenses in the league despite taking a league high 73% of their shots from 2-pt range. They were even able to make their way all the way up to the top 4 seeds in the West. Since then they have tailed off significantly. In February (6 games played) they have a defensive rating of 121.5, 29th in the NBA. The Lakers follow just behind them at 30th which is kind of funny. If the Spurs continue to give up points at this rate then they will certainly miss the playoffs unless they can go on some historic streak offensively. The way their team is built though, centered around 2 mid range shooters (albeit two of the best in the league), I do not think their offense will be enough to make up for their defensive woes. Although Gregg Popovich is a great coach and I will not be surprised if he cooks up a defensive scheme to at least hide their problems until the playoffs come around.
So those teams listed above are the biggest inhibitors to the Kings and Lakers making it into the playoffs. All of the teams I listed have flaws though and it will not be impossible to overcome them, just very difficult. So what about the Kings and Lakers teams themselves? The Lakers have been an embarrassment defensively by every metric. They are last in defensive rating, top five in points allowed off turnovers, bottom five in transition defense, and are bottom ten in points allowed in the paint. The only other teams around them are lottery teams and, you cannot make this up, the Kings. The Kings are top 10 in defensive rating which is a huge difference, but in terms of the other advanced defensive numbers, the Kings are not really any better. When you look at the offensive side of the ball the two teams are not that different either. The Kings have an offensive rating of just one point better than the Lakers. The Lakers are just 1 percentage point better in terms of effective field goal percentage. Both of their ratings overall are league average. If you do not believe me just take a look.
It is almost too fitting that they are in such a competitive spot for the final playoff spot. So what is the biggest difference between the two teams? Well it is LeBron James. He is the biggest difference maker for this team and with him saying that he is "going into playoff mode early", we can expect the best of James down the stretch. Everyone who watches basketball understands the sport is a team game, but having a transformational talent like LeBron can be enough to carry even a below average team to success. This is certainly what the Lakers are banking on to get them into the postseason. This makes sense because it is their best chance for success. The Lakers will also have Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball returning to the lineup which will without a doubt improve their defensive numbers. The Kings have geared up for the postseason run by adding Harrison Barnes and can still add more players via the buyout market. Enes Kanter and Wayne Ellington, the best players available have already signed with teams so that leaves players like Frank Kaminsky, Robin Lopez, Carmelo Anthony and a few others. Not really some of the best talent like we have had in years past. I do not anticipate the buyout market being a huge factor for either team but it is something to consider.
So either way both teams have a massive mountain to climb to even get into the playoffs. The nice thing though is that both teams have the talent and the coaching to control their own destiny. I would mention the two team remaining strength of schedule as factors (the Lakers have the 3rd hardest and the Kings have the 12th-15th hardest depending on where you look), but I think a lot of that can be deceptive because the teams tanking will be putting out the worst teams possible. The teams winning will also be resting players down the stretch so some of these games that seem difficult on paper could end up being easy wins for either team. Additionally, if the Timberwolves or Mavericks go on a winning streak then they are right in the hunt for the final spot as well. Either way these 25 or so games to end the season are going to be a chaotic race both for the teams at the bottom of the west and the three players I will discuss next.
2. The MVP Race!
The race for MVP this year will be a lot like the race was a few years ago with James Harden and Russell Westbrook. It is going to be solely decided by which voters prefer which style of play. The three main candidates are James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Paul George. The order above is also my preference for who I think I are 1, 2, and 3 for me.
If you value scoring and huge numbers then Harden is your guys. Harden has been on a historic tear offensively for about 3 months now, both out of necessity and because the Rockets have discovered that is the best way to win games. However, despite his greatness, it is tough to advocate for the style of play because it is methodical, a little boring sometimes, and when it is not going well it looks really ugly. Harden has been on a scoring streak not seen since Wilt Chamberlain (Joel Embiid's GOAT) and has smashed past every record Kobe set in the mid 2000s.
From December 1st up until the All-Star break, Harden has been leading the league in scoring and frankly it is not even close. He is almost making as many free throws as field goals which I am sure is a stat that does not happen very often. He has been even better this year than he was last year when he won MVP. However, I think he has a worse chance of winning this year because of his style, his playoff failures, and writers/voters desire to move on to a new story. I would still vote for Harden, but like I said before, it is all up to preference.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, like Harden is putting up historic numbers. He is breaking 40 year records that were set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar when he played for the Bucks. This is such a significant feat. You could argue that both Harden and Giannis breaking historic NBA records means that this season, statistically, is one of the greatest MVP races of all time. There are many races that were this close, but I have a feeling that you would need to go back to Michael Jordan in order to find MVP races where records were being broken this casually. To go back to Giannis now though he has the perfect team around him, he can dunk from anywhere, and he has improved dramatically as a playmaker. His team also has the best record in the East. So if you value leadership, charisma, and team success then he is your guy to vote for.
Now the 3rd candidate. For much of the season Paul George was just discussed as having a good year, but not an MVP type year. So it was basically a typical Paul George type season. He was your 3 and D guy who could create some shots for himself but really needed Westbrook to set him up. A lot of the conversation changed for two reasons. First was when hit multiple game winners. He hit his first game winning three against the Nets. Then he hit one against the 76ers. So he got the attention he should have getting along because of them. Next, writers and show hosts started to notice that Paul George is literally putting up numbers as good as Kevin Durant had when he won MVP in 2014.
In fact, by some metrics, he is even surpassing them! Just look at the numbers of top scorers in the league above. Just below James Harden is Paul George in basically every major metric. He is even shooting 43% from three since December which is the level of elite spot up shooters like Joe Harris and Klay Thompson. Russell Westbrook deserves a lot of the credit too because he absorbs so much of the offensive load by driving and kicking to George. The proof for this is that PG is 19th in his usage rate while Giannis and Harden are both top 5. On top of that, 75% of Russell Westbrook's shots are unassisted. 54% of Paul George's shots are unassisted while 46% are assisted (if you are curious, Westbrook has only been assisted on 25% of his shots). Overall this makes George 86th overall which means he has really learned to play off of Westbrook well. Paul George also has introduced a step back jumper like Harden that can get him open looks off the dribble. So in summary, if you like a traditional player who hits shots, plays hard on defense, and also plays well off the ball then Paul George is your MVP.
No matter who wins, these final 25 games for each of these candidates will all be must watch games.
3. Will the Celtics get past their Kyrie drama and finally mesh as a team.
By all statistical metrics, the Celtics are one of the top ten teams in the NBA. When you watch them though you have doubts. This mainly due to the Kyrie Irving drama. He always tries to sound sage-like when he talks, but he usually just leaves reporters and fans even more confused than when everyone first arrived to talk to him. But now is the time for the Celtics to put this all aside and prepare for the most important part of the season. Winning cures all problems. Gordon Hayward's health also cures most problems. I think the Celtics are too talented to finish below the 4th seed in the East, but if they cannot fix their chemistry issues by the time the playoffs start then they could be an early round exit which would open up a whole problematic can of worms for the team's future.
4. Will the 76ers figure out how to use their All-Star roster? AKA will they develop the chemistry necessary to come out of the East? AKA will they ever actually beat the Celtics?
Answer to question one: yes they will. They boast a top 3 starting lineup in the NBA and have too much talent (like the Celtics) to not finish as a top 3 seed as a result.
Answer to number two: it all depends on Jimmy Butler. He still, after being with the team for over half of the season now, has not seemed to buy into their system and is still frustrated with being the 3rd, sometimes 4th option on offense any given night. If he can just accept his role (a lot like Paul George has in OKC) as the primary defender and realizes he just needs to take efficient shots then the 76ers will come out of the East. They have all the talent to do so. Matchups are also a big influence in their ability to come out of the East. If they can avoid Milwaukee or Boston in round 2 then I think they can beat the Raptors and make it to the Conference Finals. If they face Boston in round two, then they will lose.
This leads me to question three: No. Boston just matches up way too well with them. They sag off of Ben Simmons which clogs the pain for Embiid which then takes away two of their offensive weapons. Even if they have all shooters out there, Al Horford has continually eaten Joel Embiid's lunch every time they meet up. Until I actually witness the Sixers beat the Celtics I refuse to believe it will ever happen.
5. Which tanking teams should you stop watching all together? AKA the race for Zion.
It is the time of year again. The Suns face the Cavaliers tonight to start up the last part of the season and it is without a doubt a game I will make sure my eyes never see a single second of. I will continue to watch the Hawks because they are fun and try hard. I will probably not watch anymore of the Bulls, Knicks, Suns, and Cavaliers though. They are actively insulting my NBA viewing by putting out these bad teams. I refuse to support them as a result. However, as soon as one of them lands Zion Williamson then I am right back on board and will watch them almost every night next year.
Other interesting stories of note: Will the Pelicans actually sit Anthony Davis and take the repeated fines or will they just fake a few injuries to make sure he does not play? What will Davis's goodbye Instagram post look like? Will it be an iPhone note or will it be a cool photo-shopped image with a long sentimental thank you about how NOLA made him the man and player he is today? How many more record will Harden continue to break? Finally, I will end with how I began: how hard will the Warriors try to end the year? If they want, they could probably end the season on a historical win streak with their lineup. My suspicion is that they do not though unfortunately.
In my opinion, all of these stories are the biggest ones to keep in mind as we head down the home stretch of the regular season. The MVP race is personally the most fascinating to me, but the race for the bottom of the Western playoff race will be the most exciting. Either way we have an exciting 25 games ahead of us before the real basketball begins in May.
*all stats and info used in this post are from NBA.com