NBA Free Agency is right around the corner! The leaks and Woj bombs are coming in like crazy before the official free agency period begins on June 30th at 6pm. We have rumors that Kemba will be linked to the Celtics, Marc Gasol opted into his player option (because of course he did), and the Kyrie-Nets rumors are stronger than ever. With all of that being said, no one really knows for sure what will happen on Sunday night or the week following.
Some basic info though before we jump into the major questions regarding all of the major free agency players this offseason.
There are about 200 free agents this offseason which means about 40% of the league is in free agency which will result in an unprecedented amount of player movement and some massive contracts as teams try their best to not get outbid by their competition.
About 20 teams have practical cap space (assuming they renounce restricted free agents on their rosters) and 6 more could easily get cap sign due to sign and trades – the Rockets are one example of this team. The Timberwolves could be another, along with the Nuggets. What fan-bases have to realize now though is that two to four of these franchises are going to strike out on players they want when they go big game hunting on Sunday (although I’m sure most of the teams have already been meeting with these players).
Now some financial information:
The 2019 salary cap is set to be $109 million with a projected-jump to $118 million in 2020 – last year the cap was $101 million. This is the biggest jump since 2016 when the cap jumped up to $94 million resulting in massive overpays for dozens of players, i.e: the Lakers and Hornets. Teams also have mid-level exceptions and minimums that will allow them to sign other veteran free agents. In terms of practical cap space, the Brooklyn Nets lead everyone with $66 million in cap space. The Knicks are second, Sacramento is third, followed by: the 76ers, Clippers, Mavericks, Pacers, Celtics, Pelicans, and Lakers. Other teams like the Bulls and Suns are just outside the top 10 in terms of cap space and those teams will still be major players in free agency for restricted free agents like Malcolm Brogdon and D’Angelo Russell. We are set to see a historic free agency period.
However, there are tons of dominoes set to fall and whatever order they go in could impact other players and teams. If Kevin Durant goes to Brooklyn first, then the Nets will be more than willing to bring in Kyrie Irving as well. If Durant doesn’t, would Brooklyn be willing to live with just Kyrie? Questions like these are just some of the many things I want to try to find answers to before Sunday evening – starting with the defending champs, the Toronto Raptors!
Free Agency Questions: The Toronto Raptors!
The first big one! Will Kawhi re-sign with them, and if he does, will it be a one-and-one contract, or will it be the full 5-year max?
What if they don’t re-sign Kawhi? Let’s start with that one because that’s probably the worst-case scenario for Toronto as of now. Yesterday, Gasol opted into his $25 million player option which puts them over the salary cap. So basically the only move they can make is re-sign Kawhi to whatever terms he wants. If he does re-sign then this team is severely constrained financially until the 2020-21 offseason, but after that they’ll have around $50 million in cap space (including Kawhi’s supermax contract).
That isn’t a major concern though for the Raptors because, besides Danny Green, every other major role player for the Raptors in the playoffs would be returning in this scenario. The Raptors would be more than willing to pay this tax if it meant they could be a title contender for another year. Even if Kawhi leaves I think this team is good enough to finish with one of the top 5 seeds in the Eastern Conference. You have to assume Pascal Siakam will make a jump and OG Anunoby – who will be healthy – will improve as well. Gasol, Lowry, and Ibaka will be a year older, but Toronto has shown that they are experts at load management, so they’ll make sure that these guys are all healthy heading into the post-season.
Either way, the Raptors are in a pretty good situation. Even if they aren’t good next year, they still have the benefit of being NBA Champions and doing something that has never been done in franchise history.
To answer the first set of questions – if Kawhi does re-sign, then the Raptors have to be favorites to repeat for the championship again – once they take a punch in the mouth financially for this offseason, then they’ll be off almost every salary next season. Their scenarios are pretty simple overall, either run it back with Kawhi or don’t. Either way the Raptors did what they needed to do. They won their title and did all they could to convince Kawhi to stay. So if Kawhi leaves, what does that mean for the Clippers? Find out in my next post!