This is post 9 of 9. For the rest of my Team Free Agency Questions, click here!
Put together four major free agents, a regrettable Bledsoe extension, Giannis’ supermax eligibility, a new stadium and ownership, and you have a potentially franchise-defining season for the Bucks.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the Bucks’ best player and first Bucks' MVP since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He has the potential to finish as one of the 50 greatest players ever and he is the lifeblood of their franchise. As a result, Milwaukee’s objective is simple this offseason: do whatever it takes to make Giannis happy. However, the financial ramifications of what it may take to make him happy are much more complicated and are where I begin my line of questioning for the Bucks.
Who will the Bucks choose to retain and how much will it cost them?
The Bucks’ main free agents heading into this offseason are Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Nikola Mirotic. Middleton has a $13 million player option, but I expect he’ll decline that. Realistically, they can afford to retain two of the four players without going deeper into the luxury tax than they have and without limiting them from making any big moves in free agency once they give Giannis the supermax - because they will give him the supermax once he is eligible next season. The Bucks not extending that to him is out of the question if they want to remain contenders for the foreseeable future. They are also have the pressure to win now because they have a brand-new stadium they need to continue to fill out – a lot like the Warriors.
So what will it cost them? I fully expect both Brogdon and Middleton to get multiple offers from teams like the Celtics, Bulls, Pacers, and 76ers in the $20 million range. Not only because they are worth it but because they can both gain an asset for themselves while stealing one from a Conference competitor. Even if the bucks keep both of these guys, everyone is in the Conference will be more than happy to watch them pay $40 million combined to these two guys plus over $40 million to Giannis as they struggle to fill out a well-balanced roster as a result.
Malcolm Brogdon also shoots 40% from three and led the league in FT% last year at 93% so every team needs a shooter like him. I even expect teams like the Lakers, Suns, and Clippers to pursue Brogdon.
The other factor that we need to remember is this: someone is going to strike out in free agency and need to pay someone in order to fill their cap space. So Brogdon could easily be that guy. A team like the Clippers could miss on both Kawhi and Butler which then leads them in the direction of offering $23 million or so to Brogdon. At that dollar price, I don’t see the Bucks trying to match that which means they’ll let him walk.
The same goes for Middleton. Dozens of teams could use his shooting, and someone is going to overpay him. That would be a very Knicks move once they miss on Durant and Butler (if they even get meetings).
As for Lopez and Mirotic, they were important to Milwaukee’s system last season, but I think they could find other players on the market who are cheaper and only marginally worse which means that if these guys get a big offer on the open market they won’t try to outbid another team for their shooting.
I think the Bucks’ best strategy is to just set a limit that they’re willing to pay both Brogdon and Middleton. That could be $41 million or so combined and if they go over that number then be prepared to walk away. I’m sure they are already prepared for that outcome unless Giannis has specifically stated the Bucks' management needs to do whatever it takes to keep those two guys – then the team has no choice.
In the end, the Bucks will probably have to wait awhile as Brogdon and Middleton take meetings with other teams which means that the fate of the Bucks’ future wont be decided until mid-July.