This is post 7 of 9. For the rest of my Team Free Agency Questions, click here!
According to the majority of reports, the Nets are front-runners to land Kyrie Irving and/or Kevin Durant. This is an incredible development for a team who was set to miss the playoffs in November and was primed to be overshadowed by the Knicks once New York landed their super team of Kyrie, Durant, and Zion…all of whom will not be on the Knicks next year (at least that’s what it seems like).
In addition to their upcoming offseason fortune, they made the playoffs for the first time since 2015, they got out from underneath the Boston mega-trade, and they established a winning culture under Coach Atkinson.
So I have a few questions about the Nets, and I am sure they have them too.
If they get Kyrie, does that then make D’Angelo Russell the odd man out? The quick answer is yes. You can’t play them both in the same backcourt. Both players average a career -1.2 defensive box plus/minus according to Basketball-Reference which means that they are both below league average defenders. Guard play is more important than ever in the NBA and if you can’t defend the guard positions on the court then you won’t win anything.
Next series of questions:
What if they only get Kyrie Irving and not Kevin Durant? Is that possible?
I’d personally prefer Russell over Kyrie because of their age and Irving’s knee issues that have sidelined him in the past. If you are looking at both of these players and you want to give them four-year deals, I think Kyrie will perform better than Russell in the first half of the deal and Russell will out-perform Irving in the second half of his deal.
So the second biggest question then is this: what is your timetable if you’re the Nets?
Assuming they land both Irving and Durant, would they be willing to let Durant rehab for a year and have Kyrie run their entire offense. Then you could hope that when Durant returns, they learn to share the ball properly. That is two years into their timetable to be a contender - this is when you assume Kyrie will start to drop off.
History says that teams putting together multiple stars don’t win titles in the first year. The major exception to this rule is Golden State in 2017 and the Celtics in 2008, but in this scenario, Durant will also be coming off of an Achilles tear, not just joining a 73-win team. So you have to assume he won’t hit the ground running to start the 2020-21 season.
This means that Brooklyn is putting their franchise in the hands of Kyrie Irving for possibly two years before Durant is even 100% again. They just saw how poorly that went in Boston. I know that Brooklyn has to be constantly debating this inside their front office and it their entire decision about what to do with Kyrie will come down to whether Kevin Durant also joins him.
In regard to their team chemistry, the Celtics had their entire pre-season aspirations ruined by Kyrie Irving and his disagreements with Brad Stevens. Whether he’s a bad teammate or just a weird guy, I don’t think I’m in the position to say, but anyone outside of the Boston Celtics’ organization could see the problems Kyrie caused. Now there is one major factor that will be different for Brooklyn that Boston didn’t get the luxury of having last season. When Kyrie signs with Brooklyn it’ll be for four years which means that his free agency won’t be looming over Brooklyn’s heads like it was with Boston’s last year. I think part of the reason why Kyrie was so discontent in Boston was due to the media constantly flooding him with questions about his pending free agency.
Another chemistry question I have is this: What message will be sent to the young core of Brooklyn about how their front office treats young stars if they easily let D’Angelo Russell walk without trying to keep him?
Will they see it as an insult or a message that Brooklyn’s management sees every player as an asset and not a human? D’Angelo sacrificed a lot of shots and playing time to start the season before Caris LeVert was injured and Russell got more playing time as a result (his minutes went from about 27 per game to 31). Will the message be that, despite what the players sacrifice for the team, the front office will not do the same for them and reward their players financially? That feels like a very Ainge-esque move and it would negatively impact Brooklyn’s image around the league.
With all of that being said, it seems like the Nets players want Kyrie Irving to come to Brooklyn, so maybe they don’t care that much about D’Angelo long-term. I’m sure they respect him as a player, but they also understand the talent and winning Kyrie Irving brings to a franchise ready to make the next step.
I predict that Kyrie Irving is going to Brooklyn no matter what. When he changed his representation to Roc Nation, it felt like his decision to go to the Nets was a done deal. What Kevin Durant will do is still a mystery to many I’m sure.
If you are Brooklyn and both of these guys want to sign with you though, you make that deal happen – no matter who you need to get rid of on your current roster to make the money work. Brooklyn just needs to remember two big things: Kyrie has had knee troubles in the past and Durant is coming off an Achilles injury. So while this signing will be a huge win for them, it comes with a ton of risk as well.
If I’m the Nets I am more that happy to take on this risk because the upside of these two players is that they now put you in title contention for the 2021 NBA Championship. You are already in a better situation than the Knicks. Oh boy it hurts to be the Knicks now…