The Ides of March have passed us which means the Madness of the NCAA Tournament has arrived. These next few weeks are the best time of the year for sports fans. The NCAA Tournament provides us all the action and excitement we need as we watch college kids reach their dreams. After that ends we jump right into the NHL and NBA playoffs. It truly is a great time to be a sports fan and a bad time to be anyone who wants to do anything socially with me in the next few months.
I'm writing this just minutes before the Tournament begins so I want to throw my hat in the ring and put my Final Four picks plus Champion out there.
1) This year I am basically going chalk because I believe that this tournament is very top heavy at the 1 and 2 seeds. Everyone else in between then could lose any game at any time. I do not trust any of these teams to put together a strong run except for Duke, Michigan, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia, Kentucky and UNC. Tennessee had a nice year but I think they have trailed off too much in recent weeks and I just feel like they do not have the necessary momentum to win this year. Duke won the ACC tourney and has Zion Williamson back which makes them a prime candidate to win the National Championship. However, they shoot about 31% from 3 on the season and no team who shoots below 35% has ever won a title. In addition, according to Kenpom and various other research I've done (aka watched ESPN for about 5 hours on Sunday after the tournament bracket was revealed), no team outside of the top 20 in the highlighted categories has ever won the championship. So while there are Cinderella stories every year and they make us excited through the first few rounds, ultimately the Elite Eight and Final Four usually consist of Blue Blood powerhouse schools who are consistent contenders.
On top of that, the highest seed to win a title in recent memory was UConn in 2011 when they won as a 9-seed but they also won the Big East title that year along with Kemba Walker who is now an NBA All-Star. In recent years it has been teams like Kentucky with Julius Randle in 2014 who have led a 7-seed Kentucky to the title but they have not won. Same with Gonzaga and Butler. They get just close enough but do not win. So it is smart sometimes to have a Cinderella team in your Final Four but its a little crazy to pick them to win. I have a general rule that I have begun to follow: if you have a seeding total that adds up to more than 8 in the Final Four you've picked too many long shots. Thus this year I have Duke, Michigan, Kentucky, and Virginia in my Final Four. I think Virginia will play Duke in the Championship and win as well. After such a devastating first round exit to a 16 seed last year, Virginia will be determined to correct the past and make sure that they go far this year. I think of this like the Spurs vengeance tour in 2015 after they lost to the Heat in devastating fashion the year before. They also have De'Andre Hunter back this year who is a lottery pick and missed the tourney last year due to injury. I'm only giving out my Final Four because anything in-between now and then could happen with the lower seeds. I also think Gonzaga has the hardest path to the Final Four. They need to face (hypothetically) the Syracuse zone in round 2, Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen and probably Michigan in the Elite Eight. Those are all very good teams who, if they have the right shooting night, could knock off any team in the NCAA Tournament. Like I said before, I expect this tournament to feature many familiar faces in the end but it will be a blood-bath for everyone else in between then. Also a lot of the top seeds will face tough games which will definitely give them some scares. I know that seems like an obvious prediction but I still think that will happen anyway. Unlike the NBA, I prefer to stay out of the college basketball prediction business but I still like filling out brackets.
2) OKC is having some problems. Some major problems. Paul George is injured (that is obvious from watching the games) and may have a partially torn rotator cuff. They have lost four in a row now, including three at home, and have the 4th hardest remaining schedule. They need to play Toronto on the road and Milwaukee on the road and also need to play the Rockets, Nuggets, and Pacers at home. All of these teams are competing heavily for higher playoff seeding so these are all difficult games for any team. The Thunder are currently 6.5 games back from the 1 spot in the East and are only a half game up over both the Jazz and Clippers for the 7th and 8th seed. It is certainly possible at this point to expect that the Thunder could end up with the 8th seed and have to play The Warriors in round one which would be a disaster for a team that had intentions of playing playoff basketball well into May. This is the time of year playoff teams need to be finding their rhythm and start playing their best basketball as they ride the momentum into the playoffs. This could still happen for them with 10 games left but them swooning at this point in the season is certainly a major problem. Being 3 games back of the 3 seed basically ensure that, at the most, they will only have home court advantage for one round of the playoffs if the season finishes well for them. If not they will be playing game 7 on the road every single round this year (assuming they make it past round 1). OKC has gone from a team that was considered to be a challenger, along with the Rockets, to Golden State's reign but now it looks like they are just another Western Conference team who will be hurt by injuries as Golden State makes another title run.
Can OKC fix these problems though? Well it depends. If Paul George is actually hurt and cannot return to his MVP form from a couple weeks ago then the answer is no. If this is just a combination of a minor injury and regular season fatigue then I think they are fine. They still have the best defensive length and switch-ability in Western Conference and Russell Westbrook is always an x-factor to make big plays in a big game. Fixing their current problems, which essentially all revolve around PG13's health and Westbrook's shooting woes, does not mean they will win the title. It just simply means they will give Golden State a run for their money and make the race to win the West a bit more interesting.
Where their potential to upset Golden State gets more fascinating is if Golden State has to play the Clippers in round 1 and then the Warriors have to go on and play the Thunder in round 2 and finally the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals. That is a gauntlet of teams to play for three rounds in a row which is brutal for any team. One of those teams, depending on the order, could eventually upset the Warriors if a team in a previous round wears them down enough. It may not happen but it is interesting to think about.
3) Avengers: Endgame needs to stop releasing trailers and teasers! You have my money already. I am going to see this movie no matter what. You could make it seven hours long and I would watch every second without being bored. I am 10x more excited for this movie than I am for Star Wars which is something I never thought I would say in my lifetime!
I need to see how this epic journey ends along with how they now incorporate the Fantastic Four with the X-Men into this current universe. I think it will involve the Infinity Stones being used a second time in some way which will the new change the MCU forever and introduce all of these new properties. Then we can have 5-10 years of new movies featuring these characters which will eventually culminate in a massive crossover even bigger than Infinity War...maybe they doing something based on the Secret Wars series or they do something like the Infinity War comic where they face Magus and involve Fanstic Four/X-Men characters like Galactus and Professor X.
The Disney and Fox merger has ensured that, besides DC, there will never be competition among superhero properties again. I am conflicted about this because I know lack of competition is bad for any industry but I want all of my comic book heroes in the same movies. Such is the struggle of being a comic book fan.
Those are my three pointers this week! Enjoy the games and enjoy your weekend!