Kevin Durant is, without a doubt, one of the three best players in the world. He’s a top 20 player of all time, climbing up the list yearly, and he’s is one of the best scorers to ever play the game. That’s why when he went planted his foot to drive left and tore his Achilles on Monday night, I was devastated, along with the rest of the NBA world. It felt like we were witnessing a turning point in NBA history.
When it comes to the injury itself, I’m not sure there is any one person to blame. Due to medical privacy laws and protections by both the team and NBA Players' Association, we’ll probably never see what the actual cause of the injury was - whether it was random or related to the calf – unless Woj or Shams leak the info somehow.
Medically, every player has a chance of injuring themselves on every play. That’s just the nature of being human and playing sports. Every time you plant and run, you put stress on our Achilles and stretch it out. Eventually as we get older, the body begins to fall apart and the muscles we have been pulling at tear and rupture.
Kevin Durant’s injury is over now though. He had successful surgery on his ruptured Achilles and now he’s on the road to recovery. However, the fallout from this injury is still being processed because it not only affects him, but it affects the entire NBA as it caused a seismic shift to occur.
Kevin Durant’s personal future is affected by this obviously, so he’s the first on the list of parties affected. He was set up to be a free-agent this offseason if he opted out of his player contract. He could earn $221 over 5 years if he re-signs with the Warriors and about $160 over 4 years with every other team. Either way, a team will be paying him roughly $38 million to sit out next year while he rehabs. Now, some teams may not give him that much money given the history of Achilles tear comebacks.
If Durant decides not to find out his value on the open market, he still has a one-year player option for 31.5 million with the Warriors if he wants to be safe and just rehab before going out again on the open market.
Although, according to Woj, Kevin Durant opting in “is his last resort”. His last day to opt in would be June 30th. If he opts in, that will be an indication that no other team out there is willing to give him a long-term deal and a chance to prove he can still be the same player pre-injury.
However, despite the uncertainty around his ability to be a superstar post return from injury in 2021, I think most teams out there are still willing to give him the full max because he is that great of a player.
Speaking of teams, this injury affects all of his potential suitors. So how does this affect the Warriors, Knicks, and Nets (his three biggest suitors)?
It affects all of them to varying degrees.
The Warriors are far and away the most fascinating team impacted by Durant’s Achilles tear…because it happened when he played for them. As I said at the top, there are probably emotions associated with the training staff, coaching staff, and management because of how the injury was handled and what ultimately happened to Durant in the end.
Secondly, he has been playing for his team since 2016 and he has won two titles with them.
The emotion and bonds he created with his teammates along the way are things we can’t forget to account for. He came to Golden State to win and reach a higher level of basketball. Maybe he wants to stay at this level because it makes him happy and he trusts the staff to rehab him properly.
After all, he just witnessed them rehab DeMarcus Cousins, and besides an early playoff injury, looked pretty good during the regular season and played well during 2 of these 5 NBA Finals games. Cousins isn’t back in perfect basketball shape yet and he still has some rust on him, but his ability to actually stay healthy during the Finals is a testament to the ability of the Golden State training staff.
If Durant determines that Cousins’ was happy with his rehab and it was successful, then that could be enough to sway Kevin Durant to stay rather than bouncing to another team and learning about that staff.
The Knicks have a big question to ask themselves this offseason. With Durant taking this next year off to rehab and our history of losing this century, can we take this risk on him and hope that it works out?
In the 21st century, the Knicks have notably struck out twice on trading for or signing injured stars (or potential stars). In 2002, The Knicks traded for Antonio McDyess in exchange for Marcus Camby, Nene, and Mark Jackson. McDyess missed an entire year to rehab his knee and played 18 total games for the Knicks before being traded to Phoenix in 2004.
That trade ended up being for Stephon Marbury who had a nice run with the Knicks, but his career there never amounted to any postseason success. He played an average of 57 games per year with them and only averaged over 20 points once.
In 2010, after striking out on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in free agency, the Knicks signed Amar’e Stoudemire who had a history of knee injuries – although he did play all 82 games in 2009-10 with the Suns. He played in 78 games and averaged 25 points per game in his first season with the Knicks. After that year, he never played more than 65 games for them in a single season. His injuries piled up and he flamed out before being traded to Dallas in the 2014-15 season.
The Knicks have to know that they haven’t had luck with free agents either due to injury or that player being deterred by the franchise itself. That’s why the rumors of Durant coming to New York were so uplifting for Knicks fans. There was finally a player who wanted to come to New York (at least according to the rumors) and be the savior of this historic franchise.
Now the Knicks may be forced to sign an injured player who won’t step on the court again until he’s 32. Do the Knicks think they can afford that risk? Especially when they’ll be investing at least $38 million per year in him?
If you’re the Nets, you have to start thinking about the viability of signing Kevin Durant to a long-term deal at this massive amount of money as well. If you sign him, you have to understand that he won’t play for a year which means that you are paying for a red-shirt player in essence for three of the four year deal. So while that red-shirt player is an All-Time Great, if you’re the Nets can you afford to sacrifice a season in order to hopefully have three great ones after that?
The Nets, after they finalize the Taurean Prince trade will have room for basically two max free-agent player slots. Presumably that money will go to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant and D’Angelo Russell’s restricted free agency (however if the Nets get Kyrie, they'll end up kissing Russell goodbye).
Brooklyn has to think about the sunk cost of investing all of that money into a player who can’t play for a year though, because if they strike out on another superstar and only get Durant then you’re essentially running it back next year with almost the exact same roster as this year. The Net’s roster was good this year, but not nearly good enough to compete with the best Eastern Conference teams in a seven-game series.
So for the Nets, their primary concern has to be: will Durant’s recovery timetable line up with their goals to compete in the playoffs and for a title. Are the Nets satisfied with waiting until at least 2021 to dramatically improve their team?
Everyone else in the league is also affected by this injury. All of the sudden, for maybe the next two years, Kevin Durant isn't a foe you have to go through in the playoffs on your way to a title. As Toronto as seen during the NBA Finals, Golden State is easier to beat without Kevin Durant playing. The same goes for any team that signs Durant in the offseason.
Lastly, how does this injury affect the future of the NBA as a whole. I personally think this is the most important factor to consider in Kevin Durant's injury because it is the most difficult to assess long-term
Kevin Durant’s injury, while sudden, wasn’t his first. He’s been fairly durable during his career but notably in 2014-15 he missed almost the entire year because of a foot injury. He bounced back really well from that so I wouldn’t count out his ability to return from this as well, but he is really trying to overcome higher odds. He is already a Hall of Famer, but this injury has the potential to derail him from becoming one of the five best players ever.
Additionally, what sucks most about this injury, as a selfish NBA fan, is that we will now miss almost two years of Durant’s career when he should be in a time of his life where he’s breaking records and climbing up the all-time scoring list. He still may be on pace to break Kareem’s record, but this setback definitely makes that task way harder. I was looking forward to watching him make history every single season just like LeBron James has the past three or four years now.
I know Durant can come back and be a great player again, I just don’t know if he can reach his level of being an all-time great again with an injury like this. He does have the benefit of being a younger and different player than those who injured their Achilles before him.
Kobe Bryant was 36 when he tore his Achilles. Cousins is way bigger than Durant and couldn’t move that well to begin with. Antoine Walker was kind of fat and Dominique Wilkins relied on sheer athleticism to dominate. Durant has much more of a finesse game which benefits ability to have a successful career post-injury
I am rooting for Kevin Durant to come back completely healthy and play like nothing happened, and yet I can't help but remain dubious because of what I have previously seen from players who suffered this injury.
Kevin Durant’s injury has ripple effects that will shape the future of the NBA for years to come. It is one of the biggest stories in this era of the NBA. Just like how Durant’s decision to sign with Golden State in 2016 shaped the next five years of the NBA, this injury will shape the five years to follow.
*image found via CBSSports
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