Now that we know who is going to win the games, we need to know who is going to win all the individual awards on top of that!
I am going to pick the major awards like: 6th Man of the Year, Most Improved, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, and finally, MVP. These awards are way more open this year than they have been in the past for multiple reasons. First, is that there is no major front runner for multiple awards like in the past because most of the votes will be mainly based off of each player's team record, not necessarily their individual statistics. Additionally, the 6th Man winner will not emerge until later on in the season as more clear roles are defined for each player within their own teams. Most Improved, like 6th Man is a very similar process. We have no idea who to necessarily predict until we see everyone out on the court. These awards are not like MVP where we know which 10 players can actually win it. I believe there is one major recurring theme necessary for a play to win each of these awards: they need a narrative that can compel voters to choose them over another. Yes stats are important and team success is important, but voters need to feel incentivized to vote. For example, when Steph Curry won it was because we had never seen anyone like him before so we were invigorated and excited to watch him. Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double which is something no player had done since Oscar Robertson and was a man on a mission after K.D. left OKC. The year after he won MVP he averaged another triple double and no one cared. It's all about the narrative. Because some of these awards can go to anyone as a result, I picked 5 to 7 players for each category who I believe can win these awards. Obviously, I will pick one player to rise above the rest, but these ones that I pick will all be finalists for these awards.
So, let us start with the least predictable award: 6th Man of the Year.
6th Man of the Year: Historically when it comes to 6th Man, guards/backcourt players have won the last 7 years and have won 15 since the year 2000. The most recent big man to win the award was Lamar Odom which is why when you see my candidates, you will understand why I have mainly guards as candidates. Each are in order of who I think will win:
1. Bobby Portis
2. Terry Rozier
3. Isaiah Thomas
4. Josh Hart
5. Kyle Kuzma
The key to win 6th Man of the Year is to score as many points as you can off the bench. You need to provide the spark your teams needs in order to lead the second unit and keep your team afloat while the starters sit. Each of these candidates are players I believe can do that with ease. The two I think have the best chance to win among these players are Bobby Portis and Terry Rozier. Bobby Portis has been quoted as saying that he wants to be the 6th Man of the Year this year which is why, unlike what I said about big men not winning, I think he is the best choice to win this year. Terry Rozier is the second most logical pick to win because he is a lock to pour in points off the bench and when Kyrie Irving sits out, Terry Rozier will be able to fill the void perfectly as he did this past season. However, despite that case for him, I think Bobby Portis will win it this year. History has shown us that players who embrace the role of 6th Man and want to win the award usually do. I think is because they set the narrative early for voters to watch them which helps give them the exposure they need to win the award. I also think Bobby Portis is going to put up good numbers on a bad team which means he has a great chance to look good in box score each night.
Most Improved:
This race is sort of a crap-shoot as well because we do not really know who improved until we watch them on the court. Histrionically, winners have been 2nd or 3rd year players who were below average or did not meet expectations the previous year. With those things in mind, I have compiled a list of likely candidates that fit the criteria I was looking for.
1. Lonzo Ball
2. Jarrett Allen
3. Joe Harris
4. D'Angelo Russell
5. Markelle Fultz
6. Cedi Osman
I think your best bet to go about predicting this is to take a group of young players you expect to make a major leap this year or have major team success, and then pick one of them to stand out among the rest. This year I am picking the Nets to be that team and achieve those goals. The Nets have enough young talent that one of them is bound to make a large jump this year. If D'Lo can average over 20 points a game this year and the Nets make the playoffs then the award can be his. Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen both had good years last year averaging 10 points and 8 points. They should double their scoring this year and perhaps even both crack the starting lineup. If that is the case, then either can win it. Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz I picked because they were below expectations in their rookie years (Lonzo's poor shooting/health and Fultz forgetting how to shoot). However, they both ended their seasons on the upswing priming them to be in the perfect position to be impact players this year. They will also both be on National TV all the time so voters and fans will see them at least once a week allowing us to see their growth throughout the year. Finally, I picked Cedi Osman because he will be expected to pick up some of the scoring LeBron left behind as well as play great defense night after night. He can put up some impressive numbers this year which is why I think he's someone who should be considered.
I think the person who wins it this year is: D'Angelo Russell. He has the keys to the offense for Brooklyn and all of his team has improved this offseason which means he has a chance to be the best version of himself this year.
Rookie of the Year:
1. Luka Doncic
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Kevin Knox
4. Marvin Bagley
5. Miles Bridges
6. Harry Giles III (Dark Horse Candidate)
ROY, the awards before them, is mainly a stat based award and team overall success is secondary. I think Luka Doncic or Kevin Knox are the top two candidates for this award. Luka Doncic already looks like he's NBA ready and Kevin Knox is in New York which means he is going to get all of the media attention and highlights necessary to beat our Doncic for this award. With the exception of when Damian Lillard won and when Malcolm Brogdon won the award in the past 10 years, top 5 picks usually win the award each year which means that the higher the draft pick the better chance they have of winning. The national media is in love with Doncic, but the only thing writer and voters love more than him is a good Knicks storyline. I think Miles Bridges has the ability to be one of the best rookies this year, but he will not receive the media attention necessary to win. Harry Giles has an outside shot at this award if the Kings start to lose a lot to start the year and they go all in on playing him to see what they have with him. He was the Number #1 High School recruit when he committed to Duke 2 years ago and has been plagued with knee injuries since then. If he can be healthy and play well this year, that will be a story we can all root for. I think this is unlikely, but something to look out for. Realistically, Kevin Knox will win Rookie of the Year this year.
Defensive Player of the Year.
If 6th Man of the Year is a guard award, then DPOY is definitely a big man award. This award has gone to a forward or center every single year since 2000. The smallest players to win this award within that time frame were Kawhi Leonard and Ron Artest. Both wings capable of playing the 4 but primarily played the 3. Like I said, this is primarily a big man award. Here are my candidates:
1. Rudy Gobert
2. Anthony Davis
3. Kevin Durant (maybe? this could help his MVP case - more to come later)
4. Joel Embiid
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Draymond Green
Although I have six players up there, I believe three actually have a realistic chance at this award: Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, and Kawhi Leonard (in that order). Rudy Gobert won the award last year only playing 56 games. He led the league in defensive win shares at 3.8 and had a defensive rating of 97.4 both at the top of his class for elite, big men defenders. He is the clear favorite to repeat again barring major injury. If he puts up numbers similar to last year and plays at least 65 game then he will win it. Anthony Davis has never won this award before (shocking I know!) and he will put up enough numbers this year to make the case that he should win it. Finally, I think we all forgot how good Kawhi Leonard was at defense because he barely played at all last year. If he is as good as he was before injury then he'll be at the top of the race. Kevin Durant talked about how he wanted to be First Team All-Defense last year, which he was on pace for the first quarter of the season. After that he seemed to tail off. If he wants to win MVP this year (which he most certainly does) then he will need to be an elite defender. That is why he is on this list as well. This award I think could really come down to rebounds, blocks, some advanced stats, and health. Whoever does three of these four things the best will win this award. I want to vote for Anthony Davis, but so much of this award also comes down to team defensive success on top of individual success and I do not think the Pelicans will be a high enough seed in the West to get him the award. It will go to Rudy Gobert again.
Coach of the Year:
Probably the least exciting of the awards because I feel like Brad Stevens will run away with it this year. He was the best coach last year and somehow did not win. He coached the Celtics to the 2nd seed in the East last year with a bench mob of players who no one could name before the season started. The only way he tops his performance last year is by winning more games which I think the Celtics will do. They will be in the mid 60s for wins which will finally get Brad Stevens the award he deserves. Other candidates to consider are:
1. Gregg Popovich - if he get the Spurs to the playoffs the award should just be named after him
2. Luke Walton - if the Lakers are one of the best teams in the West and we do not hear of any friction behind the scenes in L.A. all year then he should definitely be considered.
3. Mike Budenholzer
4. Mike Malone
5. Mike D'Antoni
If you are a coach named Mike this year then you have pretty good odds to win the award.
Ahhh...and now, what everyone came here for! MVP
There are four obvious candidates at the top this year: Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and James Harden. All three of these players are the stars of their teams and are in the best position to put up some monstrous numbers.
Here is my full list:
1. LeBron James
2. Anthony Davis
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
4. James Harden
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Russell Westbrook
7. Kevin Durant
Here are the cases for each of the candidates: three of the four listed above (Greak Freak, James, and Davis) have good narratives going for them as which as I mentioned is vital to winning. Giannis and AD have never won before and are the focal point of their teams this year. They are going to put up numbers and do some things on the basketball court that we have never seen before this year. LeBron is in L.A. with the biggest spotlight on him and the most pressure to succeed. If he can get L.A. to 55 wins and be a 3 seed in the West, the award will be his. James Harden won last year, but I am afraid voters are already tired of his story and want something new. We cannot ignore him though because his team will win 60 games this year and he will probably average 30 again. Kawhi Leonard is back after a year off and can reestablish himself as the NBA's best two-way player with a great year this year. He will want to be as good as possible to get the highest payday this offseason and striving for the MVP is a perfect way to position himself for a payday. Russell Westbrook is going to put up silly numbers again and average a triple double. The key to Westbrook winning, like LeBron's, will be his team success. If he averages a triple double on the third best team in the West then you will start to hear the narrative that "this triple double season is different"..."He's even better than before and his numbers are real this time". His numbers were real and led to success before, but I think this could be different if things go well for the Thunder in 2018. Finally, Kevin Durant can win it if he separates himself from Steph as the Warriors' best player and become elite defensively. The biggest concern for picking him is that he will split votes with Steph which is why he needs to be show he is the best by far and make a push for DPOY as well (that's why I mentioned the other award before). It would be exciting to watch his try something that has not been done since Michael Jordan and Hakeem, but I think like before, he will not win because Curry is too good and will split votes. This year I think MVP will go to Giannis as he averages 30 points a game, jumps over a few defenders, and leads the Bucks to the 3rd seed in the East. The Lakers are one year away and Davis's team just will not have the record he needs to win it. Russell Westbrook is interesting as a dark horse and the voters are over James Harden and how he plays basketball. He will not win again.
And with that all of my predictions are over. The NBA season begins this week and I could not be happier! It feels like yesterday we were analyzing NBA schedules on this site. It will be nice to talk about real basketball and not anymore offseason speculation. Until next time, see ya!