Now on to the conference with juggernaut after juggernaut. This Conference is much more complicated than the East because, unlike the East where there are 6 great team fighting for 8 playoff spots; in the West there are 13 teams fighting for 8 spots and 6 of those 13 have no better chance than one another of actually making it. So let's not keep the suspense going. We are going to jump right into who I think will make the Western Conference playoffs and in which order. Like my last post, I won't be predicting who makes the finals because I need to save that for the actual playoffs. For this I am just picking who will make it and in which order. Okay. With that out of the way, now we can really begin.
I want to start (like last time) discussing the different tiers that I believe exist within the Western Conference. I believe there are three tiers to this: first are the locks to make it (top 3-4 seeds), second are those fighting for a spot/road team playoff locks (5-10), and lastly bottom of the conference (sorry they reformed the lottery this year).
To begin, I will go over the locks because I do not think these teams making the playoffs are necessarily interesting because we know how they will play the regular season. The first team safe and guaranteed to make it are Warriors who will rest plenty of players and coast to 55 wins. The Rockets are the next team. They are interesting, because depending on how much they play Harden and Paul, they can be anywhere from 55-65 wins. I don’t anticipate Harden playing as much as he did last year (instead of missing time for injury, he'll miss time this year for rest) because he now has his MVP and can focus solely on trying to win a Championship. Even with him resting this team has the talent to cruise to a top 3 seed. The third team I believe to be safe are the Thunder. They are not a lock to finish top three, but I really do not see a scenario (barring major injury from Westbrook) where they do not get homecourt in the first round. They have Paul George back, Andre Roberson is healthy, and Carmelo Anthony is gone. I will evaluate these teams more, but for now I just want to establish the tiers they are in.
The next tier consists of basically everyone else, the (in no particular order): Lakers, Spurs, Timberwolves, Trailblazers, Jazz, Pelicans, Nuggets, and Clippers. I feel pretty good about the Lakers, Trailblazers, Nuggets, Pelicans, and Jazz making it in, but the other teams I believe have an outside shot if they have everything go right for them as well as receive some luck from other teams (slow starts, injuries, etc.)
Finally, the teams who have no chance. There are only a couple of these guys: the Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Kings. Sorry guys, but this year just will not be the year for you.
To start with the Kings, they finally have their 2nd first round pick from last year in Harry Giles who is healthy and looks to be playing well based on his Summer League and Preseason games. However, I don’t expect him to be a major impact player because they will limit his minutes so early on because of fear of injury. On top of that, they have so many other big men at the center and forward position that they have almost created a glut for themselves. On their roster as of today, they have Willey Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere, Kosta Koufos, Zach Randolph, Marvin Bagley III, Harry Giles and Nemanja Bjelica, all of whom can play the 4 or 5. There just won't be that many minutes for each one of them on a night to night basis so someone will be left out. In addition to that, they still have a young core that I am not sold on. I believe they can find someone better on the wing than Justin Jackson, but I am completely sold on De'Aaron Fox. His shot looks better than (more confidence and faster release) last year and he works harder than just about anyone so he'll have a good Sophomore campaign. Bogdan Bogdonovic will miss the first part of the season due to knee injury and they will need his shooting to win games. On top of that, their interior plays don't defend the basket well and Buddy Hield is not that great at defense on the perimeter. To wrap it up, I do not think they have the roster or the defense necessary to compete in the West. They will not be as bad as last year, but this year will not be anything special.
Next, the Mavericks have the second coming of Jordan in Luka Doncic who has made a great first impression in the preseason so far (especially when he made the Ducks look bad). The main concern I have for the Mavericks is their backcourt. I am still unsure of how well Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr will share the ball. Last year, the Mavs gave DSJ the keys and let him run wild. This year will be different as he will be forced to share the ball and play off Doncic more often. I am not sure he has the shooting to play off him effectively and until he proves it I will assume that it will not happen. Next, their overall roster is full of rookie and second year players which does not lead to success the first year out usually. I also think that their acquisition of DeAndre Jordan this past offseason was in order to redeem their failed attempt to get him three summers ago in Free Agency. Last season, the Clippers opted to use lineups without him because they were more effective to close games and besides protecting the rim, he has fallen off a bit athletically which helped differentiate him in the past. Going down their roster, Wesley Matthews has not been the same since his Achilles tear, Harrison Barnes is unexpected to play the first part of the season and Dirk Nowitzki is too slow to play the forward and too old to play the center position. He can still score with anyone, but I don’t think he will play more than 20 minutes a game this year. The Mavs just don’t have the roster necessary to make the playoffs this year. They may think they do, but I do not.
I really like Grizzlies' rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. I think he was the most sure pick in the draft last year and has a chance of maybe being the best player out of the whole draft. He is long and athletic, quick on his feet and has a pretty good jump shot that I do not think needed to be tweaked much to be effective in the NBA. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are good players as well and, if healthy, can account for 15-20 wins a year by themselves even at their depleting age. This is about where I stop when it comes to complementing their roster. Overall they did not do a bad job constructing it. They have a plethora of good wing defenders from Garrett Temple and Omri Casspi, to Kyle Anderson; the big issue with the team (unlike the others I mentioned) is that they will not have the playmaking and scoring necessary to win games. Memphis will need to rely heavily on both Conley and Gasol if they want to win more than 40 games this year because the simple fact is that no one else on their roster besides those two, has proven himself to be a playmaker and can keep the offense afloat when those two are not on the court.
On to the tier of teams who can make the playoffs. Some of these should be in a better position to make it than others. For example, the Jazz should be playoff repeaters and the Trailblazers, Nuggets, and Lakers all have more than enough talent on paper to make it. It simply comes down to what seed they are. I'll unveil one by one who I think will make it.
I am going to start in Los Angeles with the team not making any headlines this offseason, but has been quietly putting together a defensive minded, competitive team full of wings who can switch every position and are hungry to compete with everyone. I am of course talking about the Clippers who had a very, very good offseason in my opinion. They started by shipping out by shipping Austin Rivers to D.C. for Marcin Gortat who will not back down from anyone. Next they acquired Mike Scott, Luc Mbah a Moute, and drafter Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They also kept Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris, and Patrick Beverly. This team is one that no one will want to play because you can expect them to lock up your best player each night and drive them crazy on the defensive end. That being said, they do not have a single superstar that they can rely on to close out games. It will have to be an offense by committee which can only carry you so far in a star driven league such as the NBA. For this reason I believe the Clippers will be fighting for a playoff spot to the very end, but will not make it.
Next up are the San Antonio Spurs. The old reliable to be in the playoffs. Last year was an amazing feat by Greg Popovich to get his ragtag bunch into the playoffs, but this year will not come together like the last one did. With the loss of Dejounte Murray their point/shooting guard who was expected to make a big leap this year, they are now without a player expected to carry a brunt of the work making plays for his team. Patty Mills is a good backup, but not good enough to run entire offense for 82 games.
In addition, news just broke that Derrick White, another backup guard, will miss 6-8 weeks. Lonnie Walker, their top draft pick from the most recent draft will also miss the majority of the season which means they are missing three core backcourt players. To win in the NBA now, backcourt and wing playmakers are so important that the Spurs losing all of these plays so soon will diminish their chances of making the playoffs.
This team is also constructed like a team who wants to run the Triangle Offense back in 1996. Their best players are DeMar DeRozan, LeMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, and Rudy Gay. All players who specialize in their mid-range game and are below league average three point shooters. I know that their plan is to play smart, slow, and mid-range teams to death, but the math just will not work out in their favor this year as their offense will not keep up and, (heavy breath) for the first time in a while (another heavy breath) will miss the playoffs. It will not be without trying. Like the Clippers, they will be fighting until the end.
I am going to group the Jazz, Trailblazers, and Pelicans together because they were all in the playoffs last year and are all teams that I expect to…make the playoffs again this year! Historically, when a team makes the playoffs for the first time, they almost always repeat and make it again the next year. Usually what happens, as indicated in the chart below, two teams swap out for two teams each year and I fully expect that to happen this year as well. I just do not anticipate this happening to any of the three above.
The Jazz are coming back with almost the entirely same roster as last year, with their major addition being Grayson Allen who they took at #21 overall in the 2018 draft. He will be an instant contributor in their offense. Donovan Mitchell is going to make another jump this year and I think he will be even better this year than he was last year. If Rudy Gobert can stay healthy all season, he will help guide their team to another top 5 defense and the Jazz to a top 5 seed.
The Trailblazers had a disappointing performance last year in the first round of the playoffs as they were swept by the Pelicans, but that is no reason to think that they will be too much worse because their team is built to succeed in the regular season. Their backcourt is among the best in the West and these two can help the Trailblazers win 30-35 games by themselves. There are going to be rumors circulating before the deadline about places to send Lillard if the season does not start well for them, but this team defends well and has good scoring that will guide them to a top 8 seed in this conference, barely though.
Finally, we arrive at the Pelicans. I think they are a little worse than last year because they lost Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins to free agency, but Julius Randle is about as good of a replacement you can have for them. Especially at the $9,000,000 price tag they got him at. He doesn’t have the range of Cousins, but he is a good playmaker, can make passes from the high post to feed Anthony Davis and is usually the strongest person on the court when he plays.
Nikola Mirotic is a sharp shooting power forward off the bench and can stretch the floor with AD, if you have been keeping track, their three best players are all power forwards/centers. This means that they will not be able to play all three at once and finish games with them unless they want to get punished defensively by other teams' perimeter players. How coach Alvin Gentry manages the rotations of these three will have a significant impact on their wins this year. I think that when it comes down to it though, Anthony Davis will be good enough that it will not matter and his impact on the game will allow them to make the playoffs anyway.
We have now filled 6 of the 8 spots. The Lakers, Timberwolves, and Nuggets are left. Who of these three will make it? Keep reading, or just skip to the bottom. I understand if you are busy and do not have time to read. Life is a lot!
Back to basketball…I am very high on the Nuggets this year! They barely missed the playoffs last year after they lost a game 82 face off last year against the Timberwolves. Their biggest issue was their defense and, in my opinion, Nikola Jokic's lack of aggression on the offensive end. I understand that he is an unselfish play and wants to get other involved, but he is their best offensive player and he should use that more to his advantage. If he can increase his field goal attempts from 14 last year to 17 or 18 this year, this will help his team a ton because it will force defenses to take his game more seriously and as a result he will attract more defenders creating open opportunities for his teammates. The Nuggets' backcourt is also young and one to be envied as it feature two great shooters in Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. They also have two slashers/playmakers in Isiah Thomas and Will Barton. They have great depth in their backcourt and their roster from top to bottom can score the basketball and make plays. The Nuggets were 23rd in the league in Defensive Ratings last year so if they can even marginally improve to top 15-20, with their roster as it is currently constructed, they will be in the playoffs this year.
The Timberwolves may be bracing to have the season from Hell this year. If their most recent is a sign, Jimmy Butler does not get along with either his teammates or the team's management. He was right about one thing though, they "do (bleeping) need him", to quote Adrian Wojnarowski (referring to what he tweeted about the Timberwolves most recent practice).
Last season, the Minnesota was 10-13 without Jimmy Butler during the whole season and within that record, went 8-9 down the stretch which is why they needed to plat a decisive game 82 elimination game against the Nuggets in the first place. The Timberwolves were extremely reliant on Butler last year on offense as he had a 25% usage rate with Towns and Wiggins second and third. I do not anticipate Jimmy Butler playing any games for them this year and if he does, it will look incredibly awkward and be very uncomfortable to watch as the young players tune out Butler's strict leadership style.
Quick tangent: In Butler's defense though he does though, he does kind of have a reason to be angry. He has been passed up twice now for a major payday by the Timberwolves as they have opted to pay Wiggins and Towns massive contracts despite Jimmy Butler being the best player on the team. He is a hyper competitive player who always gives 110% and he wants to be paid as such, but I think he realizes that will not happen in Minnesota which is why he wants out. I personally think him going on a rant at practice and cussing out everyone is the wrong way to get the message across, but hey, what do I know? I'm not him.
Last note about the Timberbulls- sorry- Timberwolves. They have Luol Deng, Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson on their roster. If this was 2010, this team is winning the title. In 2018 this team is not making the playoffs.
With all of that out of the way, we can move on to the last team that I believe will make the playoffs this year: The Los Angeles Lakers. There are basically two reason why I believe this. Last year, this team, the Lakers were a top 12 defense and were in the race for the 8th seed until about 2 weeks left in the year. So even without LeBron they were going to be a competitive team this year who would be fighting for a spot anyway. This lead me in to my second point. The landed LeBron James in the offseason and they did not have to give up much in order to do so. The only real sacrifice they had to make was dealing Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr at the Trade Deadline last year and then losing Julius Randle in Free Agency this year. Both moves that any Lakers fan would make again in order to acquire LeBron. This team also has a hodgepodge of talented players who, on paper, do not really seem to fit together all that well. The young Lakers' core in Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart all make sense together, but the team's biggest weakness is their lack of size at center. They have Javale McGee starting games for them now in Preseason, but I do not believe that he will be their finishing lineup at the end of games. The Lakers wants LeBron to play with the young core I mentioned above and maybe some veteran off the bench in one of their places depending on the game. This lineup leaves them vulnerable without a true Center, but it is a lineup that can play fast and score with pretty much anyone but the Warriors, Celtics, and the Rockets. This team is going to be good because I believe that LeBron James will refuse to let them be bad. This team may also be the most entertaining team this year. Their bench unit, "MUD" (to quote LeBron), consists of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley, and even Javale McGee some games. I need to see this unit together on the floor. Also if they could sign Nick Young and get J.R. Smith somehow then this team is a lock to win 60 games and be the most hilarious team of all time.
The top three seeds in the Western Conference will not have too much drama this year and the real drama will come from them in the playoffs this year. Since they are all regulars to the postseason, the regular season has become dull and redundant in many ways. These three, especially the top two, have learned how to pace themselves for 82 games and still finish with top seeds in a tough conference.
The most important question to address when it comes to the Thunder is: Will Russell Westbrook average another triple double? I say yes. This is something that is too important to him now and if he can do it three seasons in a row he will solidify himself as a Hall of Famer if he was not considered on already. Also it turns out that the Thunder win more games when Westbrook has a triple double. Over the last two season (his triple double seasons) the Thunder are 52-14 when he has a triple double! That means that when Westbrook has a triple double, the Thunder have a 78% chance of winning that game. Like the last two years, they will find success in riding Russell Westbrook. That will actually be easier than last year because their current roster is better equipped to play off of him than last year. Getting rid of Carmelo Anthony is a plus on the defensive and offensive end for this team, Andre Roberson can't shoot so he lets Westbrook dominate the ball anyway, and Steven Adams is the perfect player to play off of Westbrook because all he wants to do is play defense and grab offensive rebounds. On top of that they managed to re-sign Paul George and they acquired Dennis Schroder in the offseason who both can take the ball out of Westbrook's hands if need be and can fill the playmaking void when he is on the bench. This team is very sneaky defensively as they acquired both Timothe Luwau-Cabarrot and Nerlens Noel in the offseason as well. Two good defenders who do not need the ball on offense to be effective. This team is primed for a great year this year.
The Rockets this year are undoubtedly worse than the team they had last year. They do not have Trevor Ariza or Mbah a Moute anymore which hurts them on defense and they lost Ryan Anderson who could space the floor for them. Chris Paul is a year older and so is Carmelo Anthony who they got this offseason. They expect Melo to make up for their lost shooting, but I do not think he is as good of a shooter as Anderson and he cannot play defense even close to the level of either of their previous wings. There are many reasons to doubt the Rockets this year, but there is still one reason to believe in them and that reason is a reigning MVP named James Harden.
Just look at this shot to the right here. The NBA Referee's official Twitter account declared this is not a travel which means that it is over for the league this year and Harden will average over 30 points no problem. The Rockets will run 48 minutes of isolation basketball for 82 games this year and it will be incredibly boring to watch but incredibly effective as a means to win games. No one in the league can successfully guard Harden one on one every single time down the court. A defender may get him once or twice, but James Harden has so many moves and is the best step-back three shooter of all-time that the Rockets most efficient offense is to have him isolate every single time down the court and use his skill-set to get others open. It seems like an antiquated form of basketball (Kobe Bryant got ripped for playing isolation ball like this ) but if it is a team's best chance to score then why not do it until the defense can stop you?
Now for the best team in the league: the Golden State Warriors. They are the defending champions and are now trying to do what only three others have done in history, 3-peat. The 60s Celtics did it, 90s Bulls did it twice with Jordan, and the 2000-2003 Lakers did it with Kobe and Shaq. The debate around this team is no longer can they win the title, but are they the best team ever assembled? I believe that the Warriors are definitely one of the three best teams of all-time only behind the Bulls and just ahead of Kobe and Shaq (sorry 60s Celtics it was too long ago). If the Warriors can repeat this year with a healthy DeMarcus Cousins then there will be no doubt in my mind that this is the best team ever. They currently have 3 top 50 players of all-time on their roster (Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson) and added one of the best centers in the league this offseason. Yes, he is coming off of an Achilles tear, but because of how good the Warriors roster is, Boogie has all the time in the world to rehab and come back at 100%. There is not too much I can add about this team that has not already been said. This is the team to beat in the NBA and until someone can dethrone them or prove they are better, then this team is positioned better than anyone (besides the Celtics) to win it all again.
So this is how I expect the Western Conference Playoffs to end up. The two new teams are the Nuggets and Lakers who will be in the 5-6 range. Besides those shake ups, I expect the West to have the same contenders. In my opinion, the drama is going to be all the bottom half teams fighting for seeding and playoff spots. After that, the drama will be because any team can beat any other team in the West this year (except the Warriors).
Now we have the East and West figured out. So who will win the regular season awards? I will tell you next...