Once Paul George was traded to the Los Angeles Clippers last Sunday in order to acquire Kawhi Leonard, the second question on everyone’s mind was: what will happen to Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City?
It seemed almost too likely that OKC would trade Russell Westbrook, the face of their franchise, because getting rid of Paul George solidified that their team is no longer a contender and that they need to begin the rebuild as soon as possible.
However, with Westbrook on the roster, that was no sure thing. I’d bet anything that he would do everything in his power to keep OKC in contention for the playoffs as long as possible. Couple that with his massive salary that will pay him $38 million next year, $41 million in 2020, $43 million in 2021 when he’s 33, and $46 million the year after (that last year is a player option, but I’ll go ahead and report now that he’s going to opt-in) you can see why his timeline and financial obligation owed to him by the Thunder just simply doesn’t align with their current goals.
OKC’s sole objective after trading George was to get rid of big salaries and acquire draft assets. They have already done that masterfully when they turned a handcuff-trade-request by Paul George into the biggest trade haul in NBA history. Now they have wonderfully turned Russell Westbrook into two protected first-round picks (2024 and 2026, both protected Nos. 1-4) and two pick swaps (2021 and 2025) – and Chris Paul’s huge contract as well.
So what does this all mean for everyone involved? A few things…
Let’s break this trade down from OKC’s point of view into three parts.
First, the draft assets.
The two picks in 2024 and 2026 are heavily protected and may not convey until later years (the details on those picks will come out in the future), but those years are very important. Westbrook and Harden will both be 30 years old when the 2019-20 season begins so you would assume that their decline will begin in the next couple of years with the worst part coming in the 2025-26 season – assuming they’re still together then. This means that OKC would be getting Houston’s draft picks right as Houston may need them most.
However, Houston’s GM Daryl Morey has shown a tendency to unload draft picks when necessary because of his ability to find talent in other places. Also 2026 is really long time from now…anything can happen between now and then! The other picks swaps in 2021 and 2025 are nice to have, but I don’t foresee any scenario where OKC has a better record than Houston in 2021 so that pick won’t convey then and may just end up being second-round picks down the line.
The 2025 pick is a bit better, but I still don’t think OKC will be better than Houston even then – unless Sam Presti’s (OKC’s GM) draft magic grabs him another superstar like Harden, Durant, or Westbrook. If you add in these picks with the ones they acquired from the Clippers and the Nuggets, the Thunder now have (in theory) roughly 15 draft picks over the next seven years that they have acquired in one weeks’ time. Obviously, you hate trading away the most important player in the history of your franchise to do it, but business is business sometimes.
Now the second part – Chris Paul. It seems like Paul isn’t long for OKC and they are going to do what they can to get him in a situation that will allow him to contend for a title. Unfortunately, for OKC that won’t be easy. Everyone has used all their cap space at this point and not many teams are looking for an aging point guard who’s under 6’1” and is on the other side of 34. The most games he’s played in a season over the past 3 years has been 61 for the Clippers in 2016-17. He’s been constantly injured towards the end of the season over the past two years and there have been tons of rumors surrounding his disagreements with James Harden.
The rumors about their disagreements have been going on all year long, but the actual trade rumors resulting from them began about a month ago when we got the news that the Rockets were looking to trade everyone on their roster.
Now that rumors have finally come to fruition and I suspect that Chris Paul will be traded again before the season starts. So if they don’t intend to keep him, why did OKC trade for Paul? I think this is a two-part deal where you make the first part now and then figure out the second part later. This is because the draft haul the Thunder were receiving for Westbrook was too much to pass up; plus you helped send Westbrook to a place where he was willing to go. There is going to be a team that creates the space and gives the Thunder the assets they need in order to make the next trade for Paul worth it.
The heavy front-runner to land Paul seems like it’s the Miami Heat (who were also in hot pursuit of Westbrook) and that team makes perfect sense for him because he can be the second fiddle to Jimmy Butler and he can also compete for the playoffs. So at this point, it’s just a matter of time before they trade for him and OKC gets another load of draft assets.
They’ll also receive salaries that will match Paul’s.
If this trade happens, the easiest salaries for Miami to send over in exchange are some combo of Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow and Kelly Olynyk. I suspect that OKC will only want to take on Dragic’s contract because he is a point guard with only two years left on his deal. Getting Justise Winslow as well would be a slam-dunk for OKC because he’s a young wing with potential who can either become a long-term part of your franchise or be flipped later down the road to a team who needs a wing for the playoffs. Miami will also have to send over some draft picks to make it worth it for OKC I’m sure. OKC can also just give them some of their assets they received in the past two weeks for a better haul – maybe they can even find a way to get Bam Adebayo in the deal. If OKC is lucky they could find a way to land Kendrick Nunn who is killing it at Summer League.
**On a separate note I saw Nunn in person at Summer League a couple days ago and I am convinced he could start in the league today. He’s an athletic guard who can straight up score the basketball – no matter what anyone does to try and stop him. He even stripped the ball from a poor T-Wolves point guard then proceeded to dunk over him to tie the game with 20 seconds to play.**
So after that quick tangent, I think Chris Paul ends up in Miami – however there’s always the chance that a random third-party team from out of nowhere grabs him from the Thunder.
Now for the third OKC element of this trade – saying goodbye to Russell Westbrook. This trade is tough for OKC fans, and basketball fans, because Westbrook was the guy who stayed in OKC when Durant left them. Westbrook wanted to win a title for the team that drafted him. He was the heart and soul of that city. He made the Thunder a must-watch team every night because of his out-of-the-gym leaping abilities. He averaged a triple double THREE SEASONS IN A ROW for the Thunder!! He finishes his tenure there as the all-time leading scorer and one of only three players in NBA history to record 15,000 points, 5,000 assists, and 5,000 rebounds with a single franchise (the other two are LeBron James and Kobe Bryant). Since Westbrook came into the league, the Thunder have the third most wins and have made the playoffs every year since 2010 (except for the 2015 postseason). He was the heart and soul of the small-market Oklahoma City franchise and was the picture-perfect scenario for drafting and retaining home-grown talent.
He’s gone now, but his jersey will be retired, a statue will be built on in front of Chesapeake Arena and Oklahoma City will never forget that he stayed and fought for them when Kevin Durant left.
During his 11 years in the NBA, he helped make them a model franchise anyone can be proud to root for. Now the Westbrook era has ended and he’s reuniting with his old teammate James Harden.
One last note about OKC’s side of the deal. The idea that there was no trade market for Westbrook was absurd to me. Despite how bad you think his contract is, he’s still a Top 15 NBA player today and a massive fan draw. The notion made by some pundits that OKC couldn’t even get a first-round pick for him seemed outlandish.
With all of the emotions out of the way – let’s look at the basketball side of this trade by looking at how this deal impacts the Houston Rockets!
Suffice to say, the Houston Rockets are a team that loves iso-ball. With this trade, they just got even more iso-ball heavy! James Harden has been top five in usage rate every year since 2014 (minimum 20 minutes played per game and at least 45 games per season) with Westbrook either right behind him or just in front of him. I completely expect Houston to go even heavier on isolation play and become a more extreme version of themselves from last season.
The exception this time is that, the Houston now has a two headed monster with guards who have completely different skill sets that Mike D’Antoni will take total advantage of.
Westbrook has the athleticism and strength to overpower any defender and drive to the basket at will. James Harden has the ability to finesse his defender and create the perfect shot for himself at any angle. Their combined style of basketball is going to be incredibly frustrating to watch, but even more frustrating to defend as they isolate opposing teams to death.
I also expect the Rockets to run in transition more than they did last year. They were constantly concerned all season long with managing Chris Paul’s load on offense and making sure he was ready to go come May – as a result (along with some Harden iso) the Rockets played with the 4th slowest pace in the league last year. With Westbrook though, this team can get out in transition whenever they want to and create a nightmare 2 on 1 fastbreak scenario for any team trying to stop them in transition.
Another big bonus for the Rockets post-trade – chemistry! As much as Houston may not want to admit that egos matter, they do. Russell Westbrook and James Harden are both friends who will cooperate way more than Chris Paul and James Harden. Westbrook and Harden were teammates in OKC, and they were teammates on Team USA. Although their two styles seem to naturally conflict with each other, their ability to live amicably on the court together and survive a season without killing each other is essential next year.
Finally, we have to think about this trade in the context of next years NBA. The Warriors as they existed last season, are dead. The new threats to contend with are the Bucks, Clippers, 76ers, and Lakers (along with dozens of other duos in the NBA). The Rockets team, as it was constructed with James Harden and Chris Paul, was designed to beat the super-team Warriors with Durant.
Now it needs to be designed to beat the teams I listed above. This team, led by Harden and Westbrook, gives them a better shot against those teams than Chris Paul did. Westbrook, despite his flaws (his bad shooting), is still a player that goes 120% every single play and is someone you need to account for every time he’s on the court.
When the Rockets had Harden, defenses didn’t need to worry about Chris Paul because he wasn’t athletic enough to do anything off the ball. Unlike Paul, Westbrook will be crashing the glass on offense and initiating fastbreaks when he grabs the defensive rebound. Also if you look at their (likely) starting lineup, you have Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, and Clint Capela. This is a team who’s ready to go to war and win against either Los Angeles team.
With the end of the Warriors dynasty, I believe that big men will begin to have a much more prevalent role in the NBA again. Because the Warriors (or frankly any other team) can no longer trot out a death lineup of five capable wing players, centers in the NBA won’t be played off the floor as easily. This means that Clint Capela, who was unplayable down the stretch against the Warriors in the postseason, now can be out there in crunch time as he defends centers like Brook Lopez, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. However, Houston has also shown the ability to defend small-ball lineup too, so if some team does try that against them then they are capable of defending that lineup too.
Just when we thought the Rockets were on their last legs as a contender, they whip out a great trade like this and throw themselves right back in the mix for the NBA title.
I think this is a trade Houston needed to make in order to reinvigorate their team and create a spark for their franchise. They have been beaten two years in a row by the Warriors and now, with Westbrook ready to help them reach the promise land, the Rockets are re-tooled and ready to take on any challengers!