The second weekend of the tournament starts tonight and it is basically all blue bloods with a couple outsiders. So far this tournament has been objectively below the standards of excitement we normally want from March Madness. No buzzer beaters, very few upsets, and a multitude of blowouts have led us to the point we are at now. However, now that all the best teams have advanced and are playing each other I think we are in for some exciting games and some really good basketball. That is what separates the later rounds from the round of 64 and 32. While the games are exciting and chaotic during the first weekend, a lot of the times the basketball played on the court is pretty bad. Bad players take bad shots, players lose themselves in the moment, coaches decide to foul (or not foul) too early, and teams that should win end up losing. Now that the bad teams have been eliminated and the bad coaches (for the most part) are out we will be seeing mainly good games and good basketball throughout the rest of the tournament.
However, because I do not have a horse in this race, I mainly watch now for NBA prospects. I specifically watch for players who I think could improve their stock and make a jump up from the Mock Draft positions they are in now. I have five players in mind who I think all have a big opportunity this weekend to not only impress scouts but get their names out there so that even causal fans will know who they are.
Before I list the five though, I want to list who will not be here. Zion Williamson is already going #1 overall and Ja Morant/RJ Barrett are some combination of #2 and #3 so they will not be on this list. I also think Barrett is at a point where he cannot hurt his stock and once NBA teams get him in for workouts and see his measurables at the Draft Combine he may even start to be in the discussion for #1 overall again like he was to start the college season.
Rui Hachimura for Gonzaga is already a polished scoring big man who can do a variety of things on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. He's pretty locked into his lottery pick spot though because of his age though. Usually younger players go earlier because of their potential and the fact that NBA teams can meld them to how they want them to be. He is not that quick but he has a good frame and will be a serviceable NBA player for a long time. If I was drafting, I would have him go way sooner. I am not though so he will not change his status too much throughout the tournament.
Grant Williams falls into a similar camp as Hachimura. He's a veteran college player who has shown off all of his skills so far. When NBA scouts are projecting players, they often look at their college tape and say: "can this player do this in the NBA?", "if this player is in a system like this in the pros, will this allow them to reach their potential?" A good, recent example of this is D'Angelo Russell. In Brooklyn, he is the focal point of their offense and they run a lot of the same plays and sets for him as Ohio State did which fully takes advantage of his playmaking ability. Sometimes players need to be in a system fully suited for them in order to succeed at the highest level. Karl Anthony Towns, for example, could thrive in any system because he is so talented. To bring this back to Williams, you cannot really build an offense or a system around him as a big man. He can plug into any system and help it run but you do not want him to the be focal point of it. Ja Morant on the other hand, is a player who you want to build around. He plays fast like Russell Westbrook and passes the ball with the skill of John Stockton. He is a guy teams will build a system around. Grant Williams will be part of the system around a guy like Morant.
Players like Hachimura and Williams, college veterans, will only jump up if a lottery team like the Celtics (via Sacramento) or the Lakers, who are in win now mode, decide to take any of those players early because of fit and need, not just talent.
Here is the top 5 of players who can make the jump if they display some impressive skills and their teams win this weekend.
1) PJ Washington (projected: late first round to early second round in mock drafts)
This may be the biggest "if" guy for me this weekend because there is no guarantee that he will play. He has been sitting out with a foot injury which has caused his stock to drop because foot injuries in big men in always concerning. If Kentucky beats a high powered Houston offense then they will get a showdown with (most likely) North Carolina who plays up-tempo and has an aggressive defense. Finally if Kentucky makes it to the championship game then they could get a rematch against Duke (if they make it) which would be the ultimate potential rematch and redemption for a Kentucky team that was obliterated by Duke to start the season.
Washington has been on a positive trajectory this entire season as he's improved statistically in every single category on offense. He has improved his hands, is better finisher than last year and has almost doubled his three-point shooting percentage from his freshman year. However he has not really had a chance to shine because the shots among PJ, Johnson, and Herro are all distributed evenly with each taking about 10 per game. At some point in the tournament, one of these three will need to step up and make big plays for Kentucky. PJ is primed to do just that.
Size wise, Washington is 6'8" but plays like he's 6'10" in the post. He makes quick, decisive moves with the ball once he catches it and plays very well off the ball. I would say he has a similar game and size to Antwan Jamison who excelled at playing off the ball and finished really well at the rim resulting in a long NBA career.
Washington's draft stock shooting up depends on Kentucky's ability to make a run in the tournament but I think they are more than capable of doing so if he plays.
2) De'Andre Hunter (projected: top 6-10)
Hunter is just outside of the top 5 in many mock drafts and I think, because of his skill set and great shooting, he could propel himself into the top 5. Now that Virginia has the monkey off their back and beat a 16-seed, Virginia has found their groove and is ready to win the whole tournament. Hunter is the heart and soul of this Virginia team and, despite being the focal point of their offense, is an incredibly efficient player both on offense and defense. In his sophomore year, he has not been asked to score a whole lot this season: he averages 15 points per game on 52% shooting and only has a career high of 26 points. He has been more than happy to leave much of the scoring to Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome despite the fact that he shoots better than them in every category. At some point this tournament, Virginia is going to be pressed for a bucket in a big time moment and the Cavaliers will need Hunter to step up. When that happens, NBA teams will, hopefully, finally see his aggressiveness and the evidence they need in order to prove that he can be a consistent shot creator and scorer at the next level. His passiveness, scoring the ball (I know he does a lot of other stuff not seen in the box score), has been my big knock on him and if he can showcase more of that, I believe that will be what he needs to get into the top 5; he could even create some debate about whether he can be a top 3 pick.
3) Cam Reddish (projected: top 9-10)
He has a great NBA body and will have good measurable at the combine that will make many teams fall in love with him. When you see him on the court, at least so far this year, his skill set just has not translated to the best results. He has clearly become the third option on offense for Duke and that could certainly be a reason as to why he is suffering on offense. He is only shooting 33% from 3 and 35% overall for the year which is very concerning. Like I said, he is the third option on offense but even when he was number two (during Zion's six game injury) he did not really step up and prove that he can fill that scoring void. All of Duke looked lost on offense and he is partially to blame for that.
The only thing that went up during this time was his points per game (slightly) and his turnovers.
On the other side of the ball, his defense has been actually pretty good. He has used his size to create turnovers as he's averaged 1.6 steals per game this season. His upside as a 3-and-D player is what makes him very appealing to many teams. While he has not proven to be a player that can carry an offense, he may still prove how elite he can be on defense with a good Duke run throughout the tournament. If he can reach his ceiling (at this point in his life) at any point throughout the NCAA Tournament then you will see him break into the top 5.
4) Chuma Okeke (projected: late first round)
The sophomore power-forward from Auburn did not need to do much Saturday against Kansas but he will need to be at his best to beat UNC and Luke May this Friday. Okeke is known as a defensive player for Auburn, but he can also stretch the floor as he did in the SEC championship game. Luke May is the heart and soul of the UNC offense and if Okeke can take him out of the game then you will see Okeke's stock rise because his defense on forwards and centers at the next level will be invaluable to any NBA team. He will still be a lottery pick at the highest because there are too many good player ahead of him, but sneaking into the lottery is a huge jump from a once projected late first round player.
5) Jarrett Culver (projected: just outside top 10)
Like all Texas Tech players, this shooting guard is great on defense and will be a good 3 and D player at the next level. What has surprised me so far was how much he is scoring to start the tournament. He is averaging 22.5 points, nine rebounds, and 6 assists per game through two games so he has started to showcase that he is a two way player. He faces an elite Michigan defense this weekend to start the Sweet Sixteen and if he can score against them then I think he can insert himself into the top 10 of the draft this year which will make a decision to pass on him very difficult for many teams.
He has the highest floor of any top 20 pick in the draft because his athleticism and defense will keep him around in the league for a long time. He has a truly great all-around game which means he will fit in anywhere. He also has a great feel for the game and, while he does not throw the most accurate of passes, sets up his teammates well.
These are the guys I think who could be the biggest winners from the next few weeks if their teams advance and those players are primary reasons for that. Even if the teams do not, these guys are tune in factors by themselves because of how well they play the game.
**mock draft sources: Tankathan.com, NBADraft.net, ESPN.com
**images found via Getty Images, ESPN, NCAA
Comments